PHELPS DODGE CORP Item 1A Risk Factors Copper and Molybdenum Price Volatility May Reduce Our Profits and Cash Flow Our financial performance is heavily dependent on the price of copper, which is affected by many factors beyond our control |
Most of our copper is sold at prices based on those quoted on the LME or COMEX exchanges |
The price of copper as reported on these exchanges is influenced significantly by numerous factors, including (i) the worldwide balance of copper demand and supply, (ii) rates of global economic growth, trends in industrial production and conditions in the housing and automotive industries, all of which correlate with demand for copper, (iii) economic growth and political conditions in China, which has become the largest consumer of refined copper in the world, and other major developing economies, (iv) speculative investment positions in copper and copper futures, (v) the availability and cost of substitute materials and (vi) currency exchange fluctuations, including the relative strength of the US dollar |
The copper market is volatile and cyclical |
During the past 15 years, COMEX prices per pound have ranged from a high of dlra2dtta28 to a low of 60 cents |
Any material change in the price we receive for copper has a significant effect on our results |
Based upon expected 2006 annual consolidated production of approximately 2dtta5 billion to 2dtta6 billion pounds of copper, each 1 cent per pound change in our average annual realized copper price (or our average annual unit cost of production) causes a variation in annual operating income of up to approximately dlra26 million, excluding the impact of our copper collars and before taxes and adjustments for minority interests |
Consequently, a sustained period of low copper prices would adversely affect our profits and cash flow |
In addition, sustained low copper prices could (i) reduce revenues as a result of production cutbacks due to curtailment of _________________________________________________________________ [123]Table of Contents 34 operations or temporary or permanent closure of mines or portions of deposits that have become uneconomical at the then-prevailing copper prices, (ii) delay or halt exploration or the development of new process technology or projects and (iii) reduce funds available for exploration and the building of ore reserves |
Our financial performance is also significantly dependent on the price of molybdenum |
Molybdenum is characterized by volatile, cyclical prices, even more so than copper |
Molybdenum prices are influenced by numerous factors, including (i) the worldwide balance of molybdenum demand and supply, (ii) rates of global economic growth, especially construction and infrastructure activity that requires significant amounts of steel, (iii) the volume of molybdenum produced as a by-product of copper production, (iv) inventory levels, (v) currency exchange fluctuations, including the relative strength of the US dollar and (vi) production costs of US and foreign competitors |
Molybdenum demand depends heavily on the global steel industry, which uses the metal as a hardening and corrosion inhibiting agent |
Approximately 80 percent of molybdenum production is used in this application |
The remainder is used in specialty chemical applications such as catalysts, water treatment agents and lubricants |
Approximately 65 percent of global molybdenum production is a by-product of copper mining, which is relatively insensitive to molybdenum prices |
During the past 15 years, Metals Week Dealer Oxide prices per pound have ranged from a high of dlra40dtta00 to a low of dlra1dtta82 |
A sustained period of low molybdenum prices would adversely affect our profits and cash flows |
Our Copper Price Protection Programs May Cause Significant Volatility in Financial Performance Our copper price protection programs may cause significant volatility in our financial performance |
At December 31, 2005, we had in place zero-premium copper collars for approximately 564 million pounds and 486 million pounds of our expected global copper production for 2006 and 2007, respectively |
The annual average LME call strike price (ceiling) on our zero-premium copper collars is dlra1dtta632 per pound and dlra2dtta002 per pound for 2006 and 2007, respectively |
At December 31, 2005, we also had in place copper put options for approximately 564 million pounds and 730 million pounds of our expected global copper production for 2006 and 2007, respectively |
The annual average LME put strike price per pound for both 2006 and 2007 is dlra0dtta950 per pound |
In accordance with generally accepted accounting principles in the United States, we are required to mark-to-market our copper price protection programs each reporting period with the gain or loss recorded in earnings |
These adjustments represent non-cash events as the contracts are settled in cash only after the end of the relevant year based on the annual average LME price |
For the year ended December 31, 2005, the unrealized pre-tax charges, including premium expense arising from our 2006 and 2007 copper price protection programs, reduced operating income by approximately dlra224 million |
We are unable to estimate any future gains or losses that will be realized under these copper price protection programs |
Increased Energy Costs Could Reduce Our Profitability or Result in Losses Energy, including electricity, diesel fuel and natural gas, represents a significant portion of the production costs for our operations |
The principal sources of energy for our mining operations are electricity, purchased petroleum products and natural gas |
The principal sources of energy for our wire and cable operations are purchased electricity and natural gas |
To moderate or offset the impact of increasing energy costs, we use a combination of multi-year energy contracts that we put in place at favorable points in the price cycle as well as self-generation and natural gas hedging |
Additionally, we enter into price protection programs for our diesel fuel and natural gas purchases to protect against significant short-term upward movements in energy prices while maintaining the flexibility to participate in any favorable price movements |
As a result of these programs, we have reduced and partially mitigated the impacts of volatile electricity markets and rising diesel fuel and natural gas prices |
Nevertheless, we pay more for our energy needs during these times of progressively higher energy prices |
During 2005, energy accounted for 19dtta5 cents per pound of copper production, compared with 14dtta6 cents in 2004 and 13dtta5 cents in 2003 |
As energy is a significant portion of our production costs, if we are unable to procure sufficient energy at reasonable prices in the future, it could adversely affect our profits and cash flow |
We Continue to Experience Pressure on Our Copper Production Costs In recent years we have experienced increases in our worldwide copper production costs |
One factor in the increase in average cost of copper production is our decision, in response to very strong demand for copper, to bring back into production certain higher cost properties |
In addition to energy, our cash costs are affected by the prices of commodities, such as sulfuric acid, grinding media, liners, explosives and diluent, which we consume or otherwise use in our operations |
The prices of such commodities are influenced by supply and demand trends affecting the copper industry in general and other factors, many of which are outside our control, and are at times subject to volatile price movements |
Increases in the cost of these commodities could make production at certain of our operations less profitable, even in an environment of relatively high copper prices |
Increases in the costs of commodities we consume or otherwise use in our operations may also significantly affect the capital costs of our new projects |
In addition, our cost structure for copper production is generally higher than that of some major copper producers whose principal mines are located outside the United States |
This is due to lower ore grades, higher labor costs (including pension and health-care costs) and, in some cases, stricter regulatory requirements |
Our Business Is Subject to Complex and Evolving Laws and Regulations and Environmental and Regulatory Compliance May Impose Substantial Costs on Us Our global operations are subject to various federal, state and local environmental laws and regulations relating to improving or maintaining environmental quality |
Environmental laws often require parties to pay for remedial action or to pay damages regardless of fault and may also often impose liability with respect to divested or _________________________________________________________________ [124]Table of Contents 35 terminated operations, even if the operations were terminated or divested many years ago |
The federal Clean Air Act has had a significant impact, particularly on our smelters and power plants |
We also have potential liability for certain sites we currently operate or formerly operated and for certain third-party sites under the federal Superfund law and similar state laws |
We are also subject to claims for natural resource damages where the release of hazardous substances is alleged to have injured natural resources |
Our mining operations and exploration activities, both inside and outside the United States, are subject to extensive laws and regulations governing prospecting, development, production, exports, taxes, labor standards, occupational health, waste disposal, protection and remediation of the environment, protection of endangered and protected species, mine safety, toxic substances and other matters |
Mining also is subject to risks and liabilities associated with pollution of the environment and disposal of waste products occurring as a result of mineral exploration and production |
Compliance with these laws and regulations imposes substantial costs on us and subjects us to significant potential liabilities |
The laws and regulations that apply to us are complex and are continuously evolving in the jurisdictions in which we do business |
Costs associated with environmental and regulatory compliance have increased over time, and we expect these costs to continue to increase in the future |
In addition, the laws and regulations that apply to us may change in ways that could otherwise have an adverse effect on our operations or financial results |
The costs of environmental obligations may exceed the reserves we have established for such liabilities |
(Refer to Note 21, Contingencies, for further discussion of our significant environmental matters |
) Mine Closure Regulations May Impose Substantial Costs Our operations in the United States are subject to various federal and state mine closure and mined-land reclamation laws |
The requirements of these laws vary depending upon the jurisdiction |
Over the last several years, there have been substantial changes in these laws and regulations in the states in which our mines are located, as well as the regulations promulgated by the federal Bureau of Land Management (BLM), for mining operations located on unpatented mining claims located on federal public lands |
The amended BLM regulations governing mined-land reclamation for mining on federal lands will likely increase our regulatory obligations and compliance costs over time with respect to mine closure reclamation |
As estimated costs increase, our mines are required to post increasing amounts of financial assurance to ensure the availability of funds to perform future closure and reclamation |
As a result of an agreement we reached with two New Mexico state agencies, the amount of required financial assurance for our Chino, Tyrone and Cobre mines totals approximately dlra500 million |
Approximately 70 percent of such financial assurance either is, or is expected to be, provided in the form of third-party guarantees issued by us on behalf of our operating subsidiaries and the balance, or approximately 30 percent, is expected to be provided in the form of trust funds, real property collateral, surety bonds and letters of credit |
The actual amount required for financial assurance is subject to the completion of additional permitting procedures, final agency determinations and the results of administrative appeals, all of which could result in some changes to the closure and reclamation plans and further increases in the cost estimates and our related financial assurance obligations |
In addition, our Arizona mining operations have obtained approval of reclamation plans for our mined land and approval of financial assurance totaling approximately dlra105 million, but applications for approval of closure plans for groundwater quality protection are pending for some portions of our mines |
We also have approved mined-land reclamation plans and financial assurance in place for our two Colorado mines totaling approximately dlra81 million |
Most of the financial assurance provided for our southwestern US mines requires a demonstration that we meet financial tests showing our capability to perform the required closure and reclamation |
Demonstrations of financial capability have been made for all of the financial assurance for our Arizona mines |
The financial tests required for continued use of the financial capability demonstrations and third-party guarantees include maintaining an investment-grade rating on our senior debt securities |
If, in the future, we should no longer maintain an investment-grade rating, we will be required to replace most of the financial assurance currently satisfied through financial demonstrations and third-party guarantees with other forms of financial assurance, such as letters of credit, real property collateral or cash |
The cost of surety bonds (the traditional source of financial assurance) has increased significantly in recent years |
Also, many surety companies are now requiring an increased level of collateral supporting the bonds |
If surety bonds are unavailable at commercially reasonable terms, we could be required to post other collateral or cash or cash equivalents directly in support of financial assurance obligations |
In addition, our international mines are subject to various mine closure and mined-land reclamation laws |
There have recently been significant changes in closure and reclamation programs in Peru and Chile |
We cannot estimate the potential impact of these new regulations or any additional changes to regulations in these or other non-US jurisdictions in which we do business at this time |
Levels of Ore Reserves and Mill and Leach Stockpiles Are Subject to Uncertainty and Our Ability to Replenish Ore Reserves Is Important for Long-Term Viability There are a number of uncertainties inherent in estimating quantities of ore reserves and copper recovered from stockpiles, including many factors beyond our control |
Ore reserve estimates are based upon engineering evaluations of assay values derived from samplings of drill holes and other openings |
The quantity of copper contained in mill and leach stockpiles is based upon surveyed volumes of mined material and daily production records |
The reserve and recoverable copper in stockpiles data included in this annual report are estimates |
The volume and grade of ore reserves recovered, rates of production and recovered copper from stockpiles may be less than we anticipate |
Declines in the market price of a particular metal also may render the exploitation of reserves containing relatively lower grades of mineralization uneconomical |
If the price we realize for a particular commodity were to decline substantially below the price at which ore reserves were calculated for a sustained period of time, we could experience reductions in reserves resulting in increased depreciation charges and potential asset write-downs |
Under some such circumstances, we may discontinue the development of a project or _________________________________________________________________ [125]Table of Contents 36 mining at one or more properties |
Further, changes in operating and capital costs and other factors, including but not limited to short-term operating factors such as the need for sequential development of ore bodies and the processing of new or different ore grades, may reduce ore reserves |
Ore reserves are depleted as we mine |
Our ability to replenish our ore reserves is important to our long-term viability |
We use several strategies to replenish and grow our copper and molybdenum ore reserves, including exploration and investment in properties located near our existing mine sites, investing in technology that could extend the life of a mine by allowing us to cost-effectively process ore types that were previously considered uneconomic and an exploration strategy that includes pursuing opportunities with joint venture partners |
Acquisitions may also contribute to increased ore reserves and we review potential acquisition opportunities on a regular basis |
Operational Risks Mines by their nature are subject to many operational risks and factors that are generally outside of our control and could impact our business, operating results and cash flows |
These operational risks and factors include, but are not limited to (i) unanticipated ground and water conditions and adverse claims to water rights, (ii) geological problems, including earthquakes and other natural disasters, (iii) metallurgical and other processing problems, (iv) the occurrence of unusual weather or operating conditions and other force majeure events, (v) lower than expected ore grades or recovery rates, (vi) accidents, (vii) delays in the receipt of or failure to receive necessary government permits, (viii) the results of litigation, including appeals of agency decisions, (ix) uncertainty of exploration and development, (x) delays in transportation, (xi) labor disputes, (xii) inability to obtain satisfactory insurance coverage, (xiii) unavailability of materials and equipment, (xiv) the failure of equipment or processes to operate in accordance with specifications or expectations, (xv) unanticipated difficulties consolidating acquired operations and obtaining expected synergies and (xvi) the results of financing efforts and financial market conditions |
Our Operations Outside the United States Are Subject to the Risks of Doing Business in Foreign Countries In 2005, our international operations provided 30 percent of the Company’s consolidated sales (including sales through PDMC’s US based sales company) and our international operations (including international exploration) contributed 46 percent of the Company’s consolidated operating income |
We fully consolidate the results of certain of our domestic and international mining operations in which we own less than a 100 percent interest (and report the minority interest) |
During 2005, our minority partners in our South American mines were entitled to approximately 185cmam700 tons, or 34 percent, of our international copper production |
Our international activities are conducted in Canada, Latin America, Europe, Asia and Africa, and are subject to certain political and economic risks, including but not limited to (i) political instability and civil strife, (ii) changes in foreign laws and regulations, including those relating to the environment, labor, tax, royalties on mining activities and dividends or repatriation of cash and other property to the United States, (iii) foreign currency fluctuations, (iv) expropriation or nationalization of property, (v) exchange controls and (vi) import, export and trade regulations |