NYMAGIC INC Item 1A Risk Factors |
The Company’s business involves various risks and uncertainties, including, but not limited to those discussed in this section |
This information should be considered carefully, together with the other information contained in this report including the consolidated financial statements and the related notes |
If any of the following events actually occur, the Company’s business, results of operations and financial condition could be adversely affected |
Our inability to assess underwriting risk accurately could reduce our net income |
Our underwriting success is dependent on our ability to assess accurately the risks associated with the businesses on which the risk is retained |
We rely on the extensive experience of our underwriting staff in assessing these risks and the failure to retain or hire similarly experienced personnel could adversely affect our ability to accurately make those determinations |
If we fail to assess accurately the risks we retain, we may fail to establish appropriate premium rates and our reserves may be inadequate to cover our losses, which could reduce our net income |
The underwriting process is further complicated by our exposure to unpredictable developments, including weather-related and other natural catastrophes, as well as war and acts of terrorism |
22 _________________________________________________________________ [78]Table of Contents Exposure to catastrophe or severity losses in loss reserves We are required to maintain reserves to cover our estimated ultimate liability of losses and loss adjustment expenses for both reported and unreported claims incurred |
These reserves are only estimates of what we think the settlement and administration of claims will cost based on our assumptions and facts and circumstances known to us |
The low frequency and high severity of many of the risks we insure coupled with the protracted settlement period make it difficult to assess the overall adequacy of our loss reserves |
Because of the uncertainties that surround estimating loss reserves and loss adjustment expenses, we cannot be certain that ultimate losses will not exceed these estimates of losses and loss adjustment reserves |
The level of catastrophe losses has fluctuated in the past and may fluctuate in the future |
In 2005 the Company incurred significant catastrophe losses from hurricanes Katrina and Rita |
After tax losses resulting from catastrophes in 2005, 2004 and 2003 amounted to dlra13dtta9 million, dlra2dtta9 million and dlra0, respectively |
If our reserves were insufficient to cover our actual losses and loss adjustment expenses, we would have to augment our reserves and incur a charge to our earnings |
These charges could be material |
Decreases in rates or changes in terms for property and casualty insurance could reduce our net income |
We write primarily property and casualty insurance |
The property and casualty industry historically has been highly cyclical |
Rates for property and casualty insurance are influenced primarily by factors that are outside of our control, including competition and the amount of available capital and surplus in the industry |
For example, the substantial losses in the insurance industry arising from the events of September 11, 2001 caused rates in the insurance industry to rise |
However, new capital has since flowed into the insurance industry |
These factors affecting rates for the industry in general impact the rates we are able to charge |
Any significant decrease in the rates for property and casualty insurance could reduce our net income |
While rates impact our net income, there is not necessarily a direct correlation between the level of rate increases or decreases and net income because other factors, such as the amount of catastrophe losses and the amount of expenses, also affect net income |
Even as rates rise, the percentage average rate increases can fluctuate greatly and be difficult to predict |
Prevailing policy terms and conditions in the property and casualty insurance market are also highly cyclical |
Changes in terms and conditions unfavorable to insurers, which tend to be correlated with declining rates, could further reduce our net income |
If rating agencies downgrade their ratings of our insurance company subsidiaries, our future prospects for growth and profitability could be significantly and adversely affected |
New York Marine and Gotham, our insurance company subsidiaries, each currently holds an A (“Excellent”) financial strength rating from AM Best Company |
This is the third highest of fifteen rating levels within AM Best’s classification system |
Financial strength ratings are used by insureds, insurance brokers and reinsurers as an important means of assessing the financial strength and quality of insurers |
Any downgrade or withdrawal of our subsidiaries’ ratings might adversely affect our ability to market our insurance products or might increase our reinsurance costs and would have a significant and adverse effect on our future prospects for growth and profitability |
Our reinsurers may not satisfy their obligations to us |
We are subject to credit risk with respect to our reinsurers because the transfer of risk to a reinsurer does not relieve us of our liability to the insured |
In addition, reinsurers may be unwilling to pay us even though they are able to do so |
The failure of one or more of our reinsurers to honor their obligations to us or to delay payment would impact our cash flow and reduce our net income and could cause us to incur a significant loss |
We previously entered into reinsurance contracts with a reinsurer that is now in liquidation and is seeking dlra2 million from us |
Should the Company be unsuccessful in its defenses, this could reduce net income |
If we are unable to purchase reinsurance and transfer risk to reinsurers or if the cost of reinsurance increases, our net income could be reduced or we could incur a loss |
We attempt to limit our risk of loss by purchasing reinsurance to transfer a significant portion of the risks we assume |
The availability and cost of reinsurance is subject to market conditions, which are outside of our control |
As a result, we may not be able to successfully purchase reinsurance and transfer risk through reinsurance arrangements |
A lack of available reinsurance might adversely affect the marketing of our programs and/or force us to retain all or a part of the risk that cannot be reinsured |
If we were required to retain these risks and ultimately pay claims with respect to these risks, our net income could be reduced or we could incur a loss |
Our existing reinsurance program may prove to have insufficient reinstatement protection to protect the Company from catastrophes or large severity losses and our net income could be reduced or we could incur a loss |
23 _________________________________________________________________ [79]Table of Contents Our business is concentrated in ocean marine, excess and surplus lines property and excess and surplus lines casualty insurance, and if market conditions change adversely or we experience large losses in these lines, it could have a material adverse effect on our business |
As a result of our strategy to focus on specialty products in niches where we believe that we have underwriting and claims expertise and to decline business where pricing does not afford what we consider to be acceptable returns, our business is concentrated in the ocean marine, excess and surplus lines property and excess and surplus lines casualty lines of insurance |
If we are unable to diversify our lines of business and our results of operations from any of these specialty lines are less favorable for any reason, including lower demand for our products on terms and conditions that we find appropriate, flat or decreased rates for our products or increased competition, the reduction could have a material adverse effect on our business |
If we are not successful in developing our new specialty lines, we could experience losses |
Since January 1, 2001, we have entered into a number of new specialty lines of business including professional liability, commercial real estate, employment practices liability, commercial automobile insurance and workers’ compensation excess liability |
We continue to look for appropriate opportunities to diversify our business portfolio by offering new lines of insurance in which we believe we have sufficient underwriting and claims expertise |
However, because of our limited history in these new lines, there is limited operating history and financial information available to help us estimate sufficient reserve amounts for these lines and to help you evaluate whether we will be able to successfully develop these new lines or appropriately price and reserve for the likely ultimate losses and expenses associated with these new lines |
Due to our limited history in these lines, we may have less experience managing their development and growth than some of our competitors |
Additionally, there is a risk that the lines of business into which we expand will not perform at the level we anticipate |
Our industry is highly competitive and we may not be able to compete successfully in the future |
Our industry is highly competitive and has experienced severe price competition over the last several years |
Most of our main competitors have greater financial, marketing and management resources than we do, have been operating for longer than we have and have established long-term and continuing business relationships throughout the industry, which can be a significant competitive advantage |
If insurance brokers were to decide to place more insurance business with competitors that have greater capital than we do, our business could be materially adversely affected |
In addition, if we face further competition in the future, we may not be able to compete successfully |
Competition in the types of insurance in which we are engaged is based on many factors, including our perceived overall financial strength, pricing and other terms and conditions of products and services offered, business experience, marketing and distribution arrangements, agency and broker relationships, levels of customer service (including speed of claims payments), product differentiation and quality, operating efficiencies and underwriting |
Furthermore, insureds tend to favor large, financially strong insurers, and we face the risk that we will lose market share to larger and higher rated insurers |
The entry of banks and brokerage firms into the insurance business poses new challenges for insurance companies and agents |
These challenges from industries traditionally outside the insurance business could heighten the competition in the property and casualty industry |
We may have difficulty in continuing to compete successfully on any of these bases in the future |
If competition limits our ability to write new business at adequate rates, our ability to transact business would be materially and adversely affected and our results of operations would be adversely affected |
We are dependent on our key personnel |
Our success has been, and will continue to be, dependent on our ability to retain the services of our existing key executive officers and to attract and retain additional qualified personnel in the future |
We consider our key officers to be George Kallop, our President and Chief Executive Officer, George Berg, our senior vice president-claims, Paul Hart, our senior vice president, general counsel and secretary, Thomas Iacopelli, our senior vice president, chief financial officer and treasurer, Mark Blackman, our executive vice president and chief underwriting officer, and David Hamel, our controller |
In addition, our underwriting staff is critical to our success in the production of business |
While we do not consider any of our key executive officers or underwriters to be irreplaceable, the loss of the services of any of our key executive officers or underwriters or the inability to hire and retain other highly qualified personnel in the future could adversely affect our ability to conduct our business, for example, by causing disruptions and delays as workload is shifted to existing or new employees |
If Mariner terminates its relationship with us, our business could be adversely affected |
Mariner is party to a voting agreement and an investment management agreement, each described in more detail under “Voting Agreement” and “Mariner Investment Management Arrangement |
” Four of our directors and one of our executive officers are affiliated with Mariner |
The voting agreement terminates immediately upon Mariner’s resignation as an advisor to us |
Mariner also has the right to terminate the investment 24 _________________________________________________________________ [80]Table of Contents management agreement upon 30 days’ prior written notice |
If Mariner were to terminate its relationship with the Company, the disruption to our management could adversely affect our business |
The value of our investment portfolio and the investment income we receive from that portfolio could decline as a result of market fluctuations and economic conditions |
Our investment portfolio consists of fixed income securities including mortgage backed securities, short-term US government-backed fixed income securities and a diversified basket of hedge funds |
Both the fair market value of these assets and the investment income from these assets fluctuate depending on general economic and market conditions |
For example, the fair market value of our fixed income securities increases or decreases in an inverse relationship with fluctuations in interest rates |
The fair market value of our fixed income securities can also decrease as a result of any downturn in the business cycle that causes the credit quality of those securities to deteriorate |
Similarly, hedge fund investments are subject to various economic and market risks |
The risks associated with our hedge fund investments may be substantially greater than the risks associated with fixed income investments |
Consequently, our hedge fund portfolio may be more volatile and the risk of loss greater than that associated with fixed income investments |
Furthermore, because the hedge funds in which we invest sometimes impose limitations on the timing of withdrawals from the funds, our inability to withdraw our investment quickly from a particular hedge fund that is performing poorly could result in losses and may affect our liquidity |
All of our hedge fund investments have timing limitations |
Most hedge funds require a 90-day notice period in order to withdraw funds |
Some hedge funds may require a withdrawal only at the end of their fiscal year |
We may also be subject to withdrawal fees in the event the hedge fund is sold within a minimum holding period, which may be up to one year |
Insurance laws and regulations restrict our ability to operate |
We are subject to extensive regulation under US state insurance laws |
Specifically, New York Marine and Gotham are subject to the laws and regulations of the State of New York and to the regulation and supervision of the New York State Department of Insurance |
In addition, each of New York Marine and Gotham is subject to the regulation and supervision of the insurance department of each state in which it is admitted to do business |
Insurance laws and regulations typically govern most aspects of an insurance company’s operations |
In addition, state legislatures and state insurance regulators continually reexamine existing laws and regulations and may impose changes that could materially adversely effect our business |
Failure to comply with insurance laws and regulations could have a material adverse effect on our business |
While we endeavor to comply with all applicable insurance laws and regulations, we cannot assure you that we have or can maintain all required licenses and approvals or that our business fully complies with the wide variety of applicable laws and regulations or the relevant authority’s interpretation of the laws and regulations |
Each of New York Marine and Gotham must maintain a license in each state in which it intends to issue insurance policies or contracts on an admitted basis |
Regulatory authorities have relatively broad discretion to grant, renew or revoke licenses and approvals |
If we do not have the requisite licenses and approvals or do not comply with applicable regulatory requirements, the insurance regulatory authorities could preclude or temporarily suspend us from carrying on some or all of our activities or monetarily penalize us |
These types of actions could have a material adverse effect on our business, including preventing New York Marine or Gotham from writing insurance on an admitted basis in a state that revokes or suspends its license |
Our holding company structure could prevent us from paying dividends on our common stock |
NYMAGIC is a holding company whose most significant assets consist of the stock of its operating subsidiaries |
Thus, our ability to pay dividends on our common stock in the future may be dependent on the earnings and cash flows of our subsidiaries and the ability of the subsidiaries to pay dividends or to advance or repay funds to us |
As discussed above, payment of dividends and advances and repayments from our operating subsidiaries are regulated by the New York insurance laws and regulatory restrictions |
Accordingly, our operating subsidiaries may not be able to pay dividends or advance or repay funds to us in the future, which could prevent us from paying dividends on our common stock |
Because of the concentration of the ownership of, and the thin trading in, our common stock, you may have difficulties in selling shares of our common stock |
Currently, the ownership of our stock is highly concentrated |
Historically, the trading market in our common stock has been thin |
In 2003, our average monthly trading volume was 168cmam075 shares |
In 2004 our average monthly trading volume was 172cmam667 shares |
In 2005 our average monthly trading volume was 213cmam000 shares |
In 2003, we had one day on which none of our shares traded; in 2004, we had no days on which none of our shares traded; and, in 2005 we had three days on which none of our shares traded |
We cannot assure you that the trading market 25 _________________________________________________________________ [81]Table of Contents for our common stock will become more active on a sustained basis |
Therefore, you may have difficulties in selling shares of our common stock |
The stock market has from time to time experienced extreme price and volume fluctuations that have been unrelated to the operating performance of particular companies |
The market price of our common stock may be significantly affected by quarterly variations in our results of operations, changes in financial estimates by securities analysts or failures by us to meet such estimates, litigation involving us, general trends in the insurance industry, actions by governmental agencies, national economic and stock market conditions, industry reports and other factors, many of which are beyond our control |
The thin trading in our stock has the potential to contribute to the volatility of our stock price |
When few shares trade on any given day, any one trade, even if it is a relatively small trade, may have a strong impact on our market price, causing our share price to rise or fall |
Because part of our outstanding stock is subject to a voting agreement, our other shareholders have limited ability to impact voting decisions |
Several of our shareholders, together with some of their affiliates, have entered into a voting agreement with Mariner which will last until December 21, 2010, unless terminated earlier |
This voting agreement authorizes Mariner, with the approval of any two of three participating shareholders under the voting agreement, to vote all the shares covered by the agreement |
Among other matters, the voting agreement addresses the composition of our board of directors |
The shares covered by the voting agreement currently represent approximately 15prca of our outstanding shares of common stock as of March 1, 2006 |
As a result, to the extent that those shares are voted by Mariner in accordance with the voting agreement, Mariner and the participating shareholders could significantly influence most matters on which our shareholders have the right to vote |
This means that other shareholders may have less of an ability to impact voting decisions than they would have if they made a comparable investment in a company that did not have a concentrated block of shares subject to a voting agreement |
The voting agreement and the concentration of our stock ownership in the hands of a few shareholders could impede a change of control and could make it more difficult to effect a change in our management |
Because approximately 15prca of our currently outstanding stock is subject to the voting agreement, it may be difficult for anyone to effect a change of control that is not approved by the parties to the voting agreement |
Even if the participating shareholders were to terminate the voting agreement, their collective share ownership would still be substantial, so that they could choose to vote in a similar fashion on a change of control and have a significant impact on the outcome of the voting |
And, even without taking into account the voting agreement, the participating shareholders and our directors and executive officers beneficially own approximately 35prca of our issued and outstanding common stock as of March 1, 2006 |
The voting agreement and the concentration of our stock ownership could impede a change of control of NYMAGIC that is not approved by the participating shareholders and which may be beneficial to shareholders who are not parties to the voting agreement |
In addition, because the voting agreement, together with the concentration of ownership, results in the major shareholders determining the composition of our Board of Directors, it also may be more difficult for other shareholders to attempt to cause current management to be removed or replaced |