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Wiki Wiki Summary
Uncertainty Uncertainty refers to epistemic situations involving imperfect or unknown information. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown.
Propagation of uncertainty In statistics, propagation of uncertainty (or propagation of error) is the effect of variables' uncertainties (or errors, more specifically random errors) on the uncertainty of a function based on them. When the variables are the values of experimental measurements they have uncertainties due to measurement limitations (e.g., instrument precision) which propagate due to the combination of variables in the function.
Measurement uncertainty In metrology, measurement uncertainty is the expression of the statistical dispersion of the values attributed to a measured quantity. All measurements are subject to uncertainty and a measurement result is complete only when it is accompanied by a statement of the associated uncertainty, such as the standard deviation.
Uncertainty quantification Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the science of quantitative characterization and reduction of uncertainties in both computational and real world applications. It tries to determine how likely certain outcomes are if some aspects of the system are not exactly known.
Cone of Uncertainty In project management, the Cone of Uncertainty describes the evolution of the amount of best case uncertainty during a project. At the beginning of a project, comparatively little is known about the product or work results, and so estimates are subject to large uncertainty.
Uncertainty parameter The uncertainty parameter U is a parameter introduced by the Minor Planet Center (MPC) to quantify concisely the uncertainty of a perturbed orbital solution for a minor planet. The parameter is a logarithmic scale from 0 to 9 that measures the anticipated longitudinal uncertainty in the minor planet's mean anomaly after 10 years.
Uncertainty budget The uncertainty budget is an aid for specifying the expanded measurement uncertainty. The individual measurement uncertainty factors are summarised, usually in tabular form, in the measurement uncertainty budget.
Manufacturing Manufacturing is the creation or production of goods with the help of equipment, labor, machines, tools, and chemical or biological processing or formulation. It is the essence of secondary sector of the economy.
Grasshopper Manufacture Grasshopper Manufacture Inc. (株式会社グラスホッパー・マニファクチュア, Kabushiki Gaisha Gurasuhoppā Manifakuchua) is a Japanese video game developer founded on March 30, 1998 by Goichi Suda.
Manufacture d'horlogerie Manufacture d'horlogerie (meaning "watchmaking manufacturer") is a French language term of horology that has also been adopted in the English language as a loanword. In horology, the term is usually encountered in its abbreviated form manufacture.
Gobelins Manufactory The Gobelins Manufactory (French: Manufacture des Gobelins) is a historic tapestry factory in Paris, France. It is located at 42 avenue des Gobelins, near Les Gobelins métro station in the 13th arrondissement of Paris.
Build-on-demand Build-on-demand or manufacturing on demand (MOD) refers to a manufacturing process where goods are produced only when or as they are required. This allows scalability and adjustable assemblies depending on the current needs of the part requestor or client.
Automotive industry The automotive industry comprises a wide range of companies and organizations involved in the design, development, manufacturing, marketing, and selling of motor vehicles. It is one of the world's largest industries by revenue (from 16 % such as in France up to 40 % to countries like Slovakia).
Manufacture nationale de Sèvres The Manufacture nationale de Sèvres is one of the principal European porcelain factories. It is located in Sèvres, Hauts-de-Seine, France.
Design for manufacturability Design for manufacturability (also sometimes known as design for manufacturing or DFM) is the general engineering practice of designing products in such a way that they are easy to manufacture. The concept exists in almost all engineering disciplines, but the implementation differs widely depending on the manufacturing technology.
Computer-aided manufacturing Computer-aided manufacturing (CAM) also known as computer-aided modeling or computer-aided machining is the use of software to control machine tools in the manufacturing of work pieces. This is not the only definition for CAM, but it is the most common; CAM may also refer to the use of a computer to assist in all operations of a manufacturing plant, including planning, management, transportation and storage.
Special operations Special operations (S.O.) are military activities conducted, according to NATO, by "specially designated, organized, selected, trained, and equipped forces using unconventional techniques and modes of employment". Special operations may include reconnaissance, unconventional warfare, and counter-terrorism actions, and are typically conducted by small groups of highly-trained personnel, emphasizing sufficiency, stealth, speed, and tactical coordination, commonly known as "special forces".
List of serial killers in the United States A serial killer is typically a person who kills three or more people, with the murders taking place over more than a month and including a significant period of time between them. The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) defines serial murder as "a series of two or more murders, committed as separate events, usually, but not always, by one offender acting alone".
Julius Jones (prisoner) Julius Darius Jones (born July 25, 1980) is an American prisoner and former death row inmate from Oklahoma who was convicted of the July 1999 murder of Paul Howell. His case has received international attention due to claims of innocence and controversy surrounding his trial and conviction.
Genovese crime family The Genovese crime family (pronounced [dʒenoˈveːze, -eːse]) is an Italian-American Mafia crime family and one of the "Five Families" that dominate organized crime activities in New York City and New Jersey as part of the American Mafia. They have generally maintained a varying degree of influence over many of the smaller mob families outside New York, including ties with the Philadelphia, Patriarca, and Buffalo crime families.
Mercosur Mercosur (in Spanish), Mercosul (in Portuguese), or Ñemby Ñemuha (in Guarani), officially Southern Common Market, is a South American trade bloc established by the Treaty of Asunción in 1991 and Protocol of Ouro Preto in 1994. Its full members are Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay.
United States The United States of America (U.S.A. or USA), commonly known as the United States (U.S. or US) or America, is a country primarily located in North America. It consists of 50 states, a federal district, five major unincorporated territories, 326 Indian reservations, and nine minor outlying islands.
List of states and territories of the United States The United States of America is a federal republic consisting of 50 states, a federal district (Washington, D.C., the capital city of the United States), five major territories, and various minor islands. The 48 contiguous states and Washington, D.C., are in North America between Canada and Mexico.
President of the United States The president of the United States (POTUS) is the head of state and head of government of the United States of America. The president directs the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.
United States Congress The United States Congress is the legislature of the federal government of the United States. It is bicameral, being composed of a lower body, the House of Representatives, and an upper body, the Senate.
United States Navy The United States Navy (USN) is the maritime service branch of the United States Armed Forces and one of the eight uniformed services of the United States. It is the largest and most powerful navy in the world, with the estimated tonnage of its active battle fleet alone exceeding the next 13 navies combined, including 11 U.S. allies or partner nations as of 2015.
Republican Party (United States) The Republican Party, also referred to as the GOP ("Grand Old Party"), is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with its main historic rival, the Democratic Party.\nThe GOP was founded in 1854 by anti-slavery activists who opposed the Kansas–Nebraska Act, which allowed for the potential expansion of chattel slavery into the western territories.
List of presidents of the United States The president of the United States is the head of state and head of government of the United States, indirectly elected to a four-year term by the American people through the Electoral College. The office holder leads the executive branch of the federal government and is the commander-in-chief of the United States Armed Forces.
Arithmetic Arithmetic (from Ancient Greek ἀριθμός (arithmós) 'number', and τική [τέχνη] (tikḗ [tékhnē]) 'art, craft') is an elementary part of mathematics that consists of the study of the properties of the traditional operations on numbers—addition, subtraction, multiplication, division, exponentiation, and extraction of roots. In the 19th century, Italian mathematician Giuseppe Peano formalized arithmetic with his Peano axioms, which are highly important to the field of mathematical logic today.
Operation Mincemeat Operation Mincemeat was a successful British deception operation of the Second World War to disguise the 1943 Allied invasion of Sicily. Two members of British intelligence obtained the body of Glyndwr Michael, a tramp who died from eating rat poison, dressed him as an officer of the Royal Marines and placed personal items on him identifying him as the fictitious Captain (Acting Major) William Martin.
Bitwise operation In computer programming, a bitwise operation operates on a bit string, a bit array or a binary numeral (considered as a bit string) at the level of its individual bits. It is a fast and simple action, basic to the higher-level arithmetic operations and directly supported by the processor.
Special Activities Center The Special Activities Center (SAC) is a division of the Central Intelligence Agency responsible for covert operations and paramilitary operations. The unit was named Special Activities Division (SAD) prior to 2015.
Operations management Operations management is an area of management concerned with designing and controlling the process of production and redesigning business operations in the production of goods or services. It involves the responsibility of ensuring that business operations are efficient in terms of using as few resources as needed and effective in meeting customer requirements.
Emergency operations center An emergency operations center (EOC) is a central command and control facility responsible for carrying out the principles of emergency preparedness and emergency management, or disaster management functions at a strategic level during an emergency, and ensuring the continuity of operation of a company, political subdivision or other organization.\nAn EOC is responsible for strategic direction and operational decisions and does not normally directly control field assets, instead leaving tactical decisions to lower commands.
Operations research Operations research (British English: operational research), often shortened to the initialism OR, is a discipline that deals with the development and application of advanced analytical methods to improve decision-making. It is sometimes considered to be a subfield of mathematical sciences.
Surgery Surgery is a medical or dental specialty that uses operative manual and instrumental techniques on a person to investigate or treat a pathological condition such as a disease or injury, to help improve bodily function, appearance, or to repair unwanted ruptured areas.\nThe act of performing surgery may be called a surgical procedure, operation, or simply "surgery".
Intellectual property infringement An intellectual property (IP) infringement is the infringement or violation of an intellectual property right. There are several types of intellectual property rights, such as copyrights, patents, trademarks, industrial designs, and trade secrets.
Risk Factors
LINCOLN ELECTRIC HOLDINGS INC Item 1A Risk Factors From time to time, information we provide, statements by our employees or information included in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission may contain forward-looking statements that are not historical facts
Those statements are “forward-looking” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995
Forward-looking statements, and our future performance, operating results, financial position and liquidity, are subject to a variety of factors that could materially affect results, including those described below
Any forward-looking statements made in this report or otherwise speak only as of the date of the statement, and, except as required by law, we undertake no obligation to update those statements
Comparisons of results for current and any prior periods are not intended to express any future trends or indications of future performance, unless expressed as such, and should only be viewed as historical data
You should carefully consider each of the risks and uncertainties we describe below and all of the other information in this report
The risks and uncertainties we describe below are not the only ones we face
Additional risks and uncertainties of which we are currently unaware or that we currently believe to be immaterial may also adversely affect our business
If energy costs or the prices of our raw materials increase, our operating expenses could increase significantly
In the normal course of business, we are exposed to market risk and price fluctuations related to the purchase of energy and commodities used in the manufacture of our products (primarily steel, brass, copper and aluminum alloys)
The availability and prices for raw materials are subject to volatility and are influenced by worldwide economic conditions, speculative action, world supply and demand balances, inventory levels, availability of substitute materials, currency exchange rates, our competitors’ production costs, anticipated or perceived shortages and other factors
For example, since 2003, the price of the type of steel used to manufacture our products has increased significantly and has been subject to periodic shortages due to global economic factors, including increased demand for construction materials in developing nations such as China and India
Since 2003, we have also experienced substantial inflation in prices for other raw materials, including metals and chemicals
In addition, we have experienced an increase in energy costs, and energy costs could continue to rise, which would result in higher transportation, freight and other operating costs
Our future operating expenses and margins will be dependent on our ability to manage the impact of cost increases
Our results of operations may be harmed by shortages of supply and by increases in prices to the extent those increases can not be passed on to customers
We are a co-defendant in litigation alleging manganese induced illness and litigation alleging asbestos induced illness
Liabilities relating to such litigation could reduce our profitability and impair our financial condition
At December 31, 2005, we were a co-defendant in cases alleging manganese induced illness involving claims by approximately 8cmam724 plaintiffs and a co-defendant in cases alleging asbestos induced illness involving claims by approximately 34cmam667 plaintiffs
In each instance, we are one of a large number of defendants
In the manganese cases, the claimants allege that exposure to manganese contained in welding consumables caused 4 _________________________________________________________________ the plaintiff to develop adverse neurological conditions, including a condition known as manganism
In the asbestos cases, the claimants allege that exposure to asbestos contained in welding consumables caused the plaintiffs to develop adverse pulmonary diseases, including mesothelioma and other lung cancers
Since January 1, 1995, we have been a co-defendant in manganese cases that have been resolved as follows: 5cmam704 of those claims were dismissed, 8 were tried to defense verdicts in favor of us, 2 were tried to hung juries, 1 of which resulted in a plaintiff’s verdict upon retrial, and one of which resulted in a defense verdict and 12 were settled for immaterial amounts
Since January 1, 1995, we have been a co-defendant in asbestos cases that have been resolved as follows: 19cmam443 of those claims were dismissed, 9 were tried to defense verdicts, 4 were tried to plaintiff verdicts and 304 were decided in favor of us following summary judgment motions
Defense costs have been increasing
The long-term impact of the manganese and asbestos loss contingencies, in each case in the aggregate, on operating cash flows and capital markets is difficult to access, particularly since claims are in many different stages of development and we benefit significantly from cost-sharing with co-defendants and insurance carriers
While we intend to contest these lawsuits vigorously, and have applicable insurance relating to these claims, there are several risks and uncertainties that may affect our liability for personal claims relating to exposure to manganese and asbestos, including the possibility that cost sharing dissipates for some currently unforeseen reason or that our trial experience changes overall
Manganese is an essential element of steel and cannot be eliminated from welding consumables
Asbestos use in welding consumables in the US ceased in 1981
We may incur material losses and costs as a result of product liability claims that may be brought against us
Our products are used in a variety of applications, including infrastructure projects such as oil and gas pipelines and platforms, buildings, bridges and power generation facilities, the manufacture of transportation and heavy equipment or machinery, and various other construction projects
We face risk of exposure to product liability claims in the event that accidents or failures on these projects result, or are alleged to result, in bodily injury or property damage
Further, our welding products are designed for use in specific applications, and if a product is used inappropriately, personal injury or property damage may result
For example, in the period between 1994 and 2000, we were a defendant or co-defendant in 21 lawsuits filed by building owners or insurers in Los Angeles County, California
The plaintiffs in those cases alleged that certain buildings affected by the 1994 Northridge earthquake sustained property damage in part because a particular electrode used in the construction of those buildings was unsuitable for that use
In the Northridge cases, one case was tried to a defense verdict in favor of us, 12 were voluntarily dismissed, 7 were settled and we received summary judgment in our favor in another
The occurrence of defects in or failures of our products, or the misuse of our products in specific applications, could cause termination of customer contracts, increased costs and losses to us, our customers and other end users
We cannot be assured that we will not experience any material product liability losses in the future or that we will not incur significant costs to defend those claims
Further, we cannot be assured that our product liability insurance coverage will be adequate for any liabilities that we may ultimately incur or that it will continue to be available on terms acceptable to us
The cyclicality and maturity of the United States arc welding and cutting industry may adversely affect our performance
The United States arc welding and cutting industry is a mature industry that is cyclical in nature
The growth of the domestic arc welding and cutting industry has been and continues to be constrained by factors such as the increased cost of steel and increased offshore production of fabricated steel structures
Overall demand for arc welding and cutting products is largely determined by the level of capital spending in manufacturing and other industrial sectors, and the welding industry has historically experienced contraction during periods of slowing industrial activity
If economic, business and industry conditions deteriorate, capital spending in those sectors may be substantially decreased, which could reduce demand for our products, our revenues and our results of operations
5 _________________________________________________________________ We may not be able to complete our acquisition strategy or successfully integrate acquired businesses
Part of our business strategy is to pursue targeted business acquisition opportunities, including foreign investment opportunities
We cannot be certain that we will be successful in pursuing potential acquisition candidates or that the consequences of any acquisition would be beneficial to us
Future acquisitions may involve the expenditure of significant funds and management time
Depending on the nature, size and timing of future acquisitions, we may be required to raise additional financing, which may not be available to us on acceptable terms
Our current operational cash flow is sufficient to fund our current acquisition plans, but a significant acquisition would require access to the capital markets
Further, we may not be able to successfully integrate any acquired business with our existing businesses or recognize expected benefits from any completed acquisition
If we cannot continue to develop, manufacture and market products that meet customer demands, our revenues and gross margins may suffer
Our continued success depends, in part, on our ability to continue to meet our customers’ needs for welding products through the introduction of innovative new products and the enhancement of existing product design and performance characteristics
We must remain committed to product research and development and customer service in order to remain competitive
Accordingly, we may spend a proportionately greater amount on research and development than some of our competitors
We cannot be assured that new products or product improvements, once developed, will meet with customer acceptance and contribute positively to our operating results, or that we will be able to continue our product development efforts at a pace to sustain future growth
Further, we may lose customers to our competitors if they demonstrate product design, development or manufacturing capabilities superior to ours
The competitive pressures we face could harm our revenue, gross margins and prospects
We operate in a highly competitive global environment and compete in each of our businesses with other broad line manufacturers and numerous smaller competitors specializing in particular products
We compete primarily on the basis of brand, product quality, price and performance, warranty, delivery, service and technical support
If our products, services, support and cost structure do not enable us to compete successfully based on any of those criteria, our operations, results and prospects could suffer
Further, in the past decade, the United States arc welding industry has been subject to increased levels of foreign competition as low cost imports have become more readily available
This foreign competition intensifies as the value of the US dollar falls in relation to other currencies
Our competitive position could also be harmed if new or emerging competitors become more active in the arc welding business
For example, while steel manufacturers traditionally have not been significant competitors in the domestic arc welding industry, some foreign integrated steel producers have begun to manufacture selected consumable arc welding products
Our sales and results of operations, as well as our plans to expand in some foreign countries, could be harmed by this practice as well
We conduct our sales and distribution operations on a worldwide basis and are subject to the risks associated with doing business outside the United States
Our long-term strategy is to increase our share in growing international markets, particularly Asia (with emphasis in China), Latin America, Eastern Europe and other developing markets
In recent years, we have expanded our operations abroad by gaining a manufacturing presence in Poland, Venezuela, Colombia and China
There are a number of risks in doing business abroad, which may impede our ability to achieve our strategic objectives relating to our foreign operations
Many developing countries, like Venezuela, have a significant degree of political and economic uncertainty that may impede our ability to implement and achieve our foreign growth objectives
In addition, compliance with multiple and potentially conflicting foreign laws and regulations, import and export limitations and exchange controls is burdensome and expensive
6 _________________________________________________________________ Moreover, social unrest, the absence of trained labor pools and the uncertainties associated with entering into joint ventures or similar arrangements in foreign countries have slowed our business expansion into some developing economies
Our presence in China has been facilitated largely through joint venture agreements with local organizations
While this strategy has allowed us to gain a footprint in China while leveraging the experience of local organizations, it also presents corporate governance and management challenges
Our foreign operations also subject us to the risks of international terrorism and hostilities and to foreign currency risks, including exchange rate fluctuations and limits on the repatriation of funds
Our operations depend on maintaining a skilled workforce, and any interruption in our workforce could negatively impact our results of operations and financial condition
We are dependent on our highly trained technical sales force and the support of our welding research and development staff
Any interruption of our workforce, including interruptions due to unionization efforts, changes in labor relations or shortages of appropriately skilled individuals for our research, production and sales forces could impact our results of operations and financial condition
Our revenues and results of operations may suffer if we cannot continue to enforce the intellectual property rights on which our business depends or if third parties assert that we violate their intellectual property rights
We rely upon patent, trademark, copyright and trade secret laws in the United States and similar laws in foreign countries, as well as agreements with our employees, customers, suppliers and other third parties, to establish and maintain our intellectual property rights
However, any of our intellectual property rights could be challenged, invalidated or circumvented, or our intellectual property rights may not be sufficient to provide a competitive advantage
Further, the laws of certain foreign countries do not protect our proprietary rights to the same extent as US laws
Accordingly, in certain countries, we may be unable to protect our proprietary rights against unauthorized third-party copying or use, which could impact our competitive position
Further, third parties may claim that we or our customers are infringing upon their intellectual property rights
Even if we believe that those claims are without merit, defending those claims can be time-consuming and costly
Claims of intellectual property infringement also might require us to redesign affected products, enter into costly settlement or license agreements or pay costly damage awards, or face a temporary or permanent injunction prohibiting us from manufacturing, marketing or selling certain of our products
Our global operations are subject to increasingly complex environmental regulatory requirements
We are subject to increasingly complex environmental regulations affecting international manufacturers, including those related to air and water emissions and waste management
Further, it is our policy to apply strict standards for environmental protection to sites inside and outside the United States, even when we are not subject to local government regulations
We may incur substantial costs, including cleanup costs, fines and civil or criminal sanctions, liabilities resulting from third-party property damage or personal injury claims, or our products could be enjoined from entering certain jurisdictions, if we were to violate or become liable under environmental laws or if our products become non-compliant with environmental laws
We also face increasing complexity in our products design and procurement operations as we adjust to new and future requirements relating to the design, production and labeling of our electrical equipment products that are sold in the European Union
The ultimate costs under environmental laws and the timing of these costs are difficult to predict, and liability under some environmental laws relating to contaminated sites can be imposed retroactively and on a joint and several basis