You should consider carefully these risk factors together with all of the other information included or incorporated by reference in this report before you decide your actions with respect to our securities |
The following risk factors could adversely affect our revenue, expenses, net income, cash flow, ability to service our indebtedness, and ability to make distributions to our shareholders, any of which could adversely affect the trading price of our publicly traded securities |
5 ______________________________________________________________________ [32]Table of Contents Intense competition in our industry could prevent us from increasing or sustaining our revenues and prevent us from achieving or sustaining profitability |
The greeting card, party supply and special occasion retailing business is highly competitive |
Increased competition by existing or future competitors may reduce our sales and cause us to incur another loss |
As a result of competition from other specialty party supplies and paper goods retailers, we may need to incur additional marketing and promotional expenses to achieve sales growth in our existing stores |
Our stores compete with a variety of smaller and larger retailers, including: specialty party supplies and paper goods retailers, including other party superstores; card shops and designated departments in mass merchandisers; warehouse/merchandise clubs and discount general merchandise chains; toy stores; drug stores; supermarkets; dollar stores; department stores of local, regional and national chains; and internet retailers |
Many of our competitors have substantially greater financial and personnel resources than we do |
We may encounter additional competition from new entrants in the future in our existing markets |
Our competitors may be able to respond more quickly or adjust prices more effectively to take advantage of new opportunities or customer requirements |
Increased competition could result in pricing pressures, reduced sales, reduced margins or failure to achieve or maintain widespread market acceptance, any of which could prevent us from increasing or sustaining our revenues and achieving or sustaining profitability |
Customers’ requirements are likely to evolve, and we will not retain customers or attract new customers if we do not anticipate and meet specific customer requirements and changes in merchandising trends |
Our core operations rely on a stable customer base |
Failure to maintain existing customers and obtain new customers may adversely affect our market position |
Our success depends, in part, on our ability to anticipate and respond to changing merchandise trends and consumer demands in a timely manner |
Accordingly, any delay or failure by us in identifying and responding to emerging trends could adversely affect consumer acceptance of the merchandise in our stores |
If we are required to sell a significant amount of unsold inventory at below average mark-ups over our cost or below cost, such action could have an adverse effect on our financial condition and results of operations |
We make merchandising decisions well in advance of the seasons during which we will sell the merchandise |
As a result, if we fail to identify and respond quickly to emerging trends, consumer acceptance of the merchandise in our stores could diminish and we may experience a reduction in revenues |
We sell certain licensed products that are in great demand for short time periods, making it difficult to project our inventory needs for these products |
Significantly greater or less-than-projected product demand could lead to one or more of the following: lost sales due to insufficient inventory; higher carrying costs associated with slower turning inventory; and reduced or eliminated margins due to mark downs on excess inventory |
6 ______________________________________________________________________ [33]Table of Contents If consumer demand for single-use, disposable party goods were to diminish, the party supplies and paper goods industry and our revenues would be negatively affected |
For example, if cost increases in raw materials such as paper, plastic, cardboard or petroleum were to cause our prices to increase significantly, consumers might decide to forgo the convenience associated with single-use, disposable products |
Similarly, changes in consumer preferences away from disposable products and in favor of reusable products for environmental or other reasons could reduce the demand for our products |
A downturn in the economy may affect consumer purchases of discretionary items, which could reduce our sales |
In general, our sales represent discretionary spending by our customers |
Discretionary spending is affected by many factors, including, among others, general business conditions, interest rates, the availability of consumer credit, taxation and consumer confidence in future economic conditions |
Our customers’ purchases of discretionary items, including our products, could decline during periods when disposable income is lower or during periods of actual or perceived unfavorable economic conditions |
If this occurs, our revenues and profitability will decline |
In addition, our sales could be adversely affected by a continued downturn in the economic conditions of the markets in which we operate |
Our business depends on continued good relations with our suppliers |
Our failure to maintain good relationships with our principal suppliers or the loss of our principal suppliers would hurt our business |
We purchase our inventory from more than 300 vendors world-wide, with the largest supplier representing approximately 14prca and the ten largest suppliers representing approximately 52prca of our aggregate purchases in Fiscal 2005 |
Many of our principal suppliers currently provide us with incentives like volume purchasing allowances and trade discounts |
If our suppliers were to reduce or discontinue these incentives, prices from our suppliers would increase and our profitability would be reduced |
As is customary in our industry, we generally do not have long-term contracts with any suppliers and any supplier could discontinue selling to us at any time |
If a vendor becomes unable or unwilling to ship goods or provide favorable terms, this then could adversely affect our ability to compete and our financial performance |
Our arrangements with overseas suppliers are subject to risks of doing business abroad, such as import duties, trade restrictions, work stoppages, political instability and other factors which could have an adverse effect on our business |
On February 5, 2005, we entered into a definitive agreement with the Premier Greetings division of Paramount Cards Inc |
Under the terms of the agreement, Paramount supplies substantially all of our greeting cards |
As a result of this agreement, we have become more dependent on one supplier for providing greeting cards to our stores |
The failure of Paramount to adequately satisfy the needs of our customers or to meet our greeting card volume requirements could have an adverse effect on our business |
On January 26, 2006, we entered into a definitive agreement with Amscan Holdings, Inc |
The agreement makes Amscan the Company’s exclusive supplier of solid color paper tableware products |
Amscan has previously supplied party merchandise to the company prior to the date of this agreement |
In conjunction with the agreement, Amscan ships merchandise to the Naperville distribution center, and the ownership of merchandise transfers to us only after the goods are shipped out of the distribution center |
The failure of Amscan to provide product that adequately satisfies the needs of our customers or to meet our volume requirements could have an adverse effect on our business |
We face new competitive threats as a result of Amscan’s acquisition of Party City Corporation |
In December 2005, our largest supplier Amscan Holdings, Inc |
reported that it had completed the acquisition of Party City Corporation a direct competitor |
Amscan’s status as our largest supplier, and the largest supplier in our industry could adversely affect our ability to compete favorably or operate successfully in a changed marketplace |
Price pressures from such new sources of competition, particularly in the event of a strain in our relationship with Amscan, could erode our margins and cause our financial results to suffer |
7 ______________________________________________________________________ [34]Table of Contents We may need to raise additional capital to fund our operations and support our long-term growth strategy |
Our ability to make scheduled payments of principal of, or to pay the interest on, or to refinance, indebtedness or to fund planned capital expenditures, will depend upon our future performance, which, in turn, is subject to general economic, financial, competitive and other factors that are beyond our control |
There can be no assurance that our business will continue to generate sufficient cash flow from operations in the future to service our debt and make necessary capital expenditures after satisfying certain liabilities arising in the ordinary course of business |
If unable to do so, we may be required to refinance all or a portion of our existing debt, sell assets or obtain additional financing |
There can be no assurance that any refinancing would be available or available on favorable terms or that any sales of assets or additional financing could be obtained or obtained on favorable terms |
If adequate funds are not available or are not available on acceptable terms, we may be unable to develop or enhance our products and services, implement our long-term growth strategy, take advantage of future opportunities or respond in a timely manner to competitive pressures |
We are substantially leveraged and our financing facility contains covenants that could adversely affect our business |
Our indebtedness restricts our ability to obtain additional financing in the future, and because we may be more leveraged than some of our competitors, may place us at a competitive disadvantage |
These restrictions could adversely affect our ability to finance future operations, potential acquisitions or capital needs or to engage in other business activities that may be in our best interest |
Also, our financing facility contains covenants that impose operating and financial restrictions on us and require us to maintain a minimum borrowing base availability or to meet certain financial tests |
Our ability to continue to comply with these covenants may be affected by events beyond our control |
The breach of any of these covenants would result in a default under our indebtedness, in which case our lender could elect to declare all amounts borrowed thereunder, together with accrued interest, to be due and payable, foreclosure on the assets servicing the debt or cease to provide additional revolving loans or letters of credit which would have a material adverse effect on our business |
The seasonal nature of our business could adversely impact our operations |
Our business is highly seasonal, with operating results varying from quarter to quarter |
We have historically experienced higher sales during the second and fourth quarters primarily due to increased demand by customers for our products attributable to special occasions and holiday seasons during these periods |
Lower sales than expected by us during these periods, a lack of availability of product, or a general economic downturn in sales could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations for the full year |
In addition, the timing of new store openings, related pre-opening expenses and the amount of revenue contributed by new and existing stores may cause our quarterly results of operations to fluctuate |
We may not be able to profitably grow our business |
In order to profitably grow our business, we need to increase sales in our existing markets and open additional stores |
Opening additional stores in existing markets could reduce sales from our stores located in or near those markets and stores opened in new markets may not be profitable |
In addition, the opening of new stores could put additional strain on our existing infrastructure and may limit our ability to effectively leverage the costs of the new stores |
We may not be able to effectively execute our long-term growth strategy |
Our long-term growth strategy requires effective planning and management |
Also, the competitive and merchandising challenges we face in new geographic markets may be different from the challenges we face in our existing geographic markets |
We may have to adapt to regional tastes and customs and compete against established and 8 ______________________________________________________________________ [35]Table of Contents familiar local businesses with innovative or unique techniques for marketing party supplies and paper goods |
Entering new markets may also place significant demands on our management, financial controls, operations and information systems |
This may cause us to incur higher costs relating to marketing and operations |
Expansion will require an increase in our personnel, particularly store managers and sales associates, to operate our new stores |
If we decide to change the location of the headquarters and distribution center when the lease expires at February 2008, we may experience distractions that could negatively impact operations |
The lease for the Naperville, Illinois distribution center and headquarters expires February 2008 |
While we do have renewal options for an additional five years, if we decide to relocate the facilities we could experience significant distractions from the management of the business as well as interruptions that could severely impair operations |
Due to relocating the distribution center, we could experience some interruption or slow-down in our ability to replenish our stores |
As well, the relocation of our management information systems could result in downtime that would impede our operations and potentially cause problems or delays with our financial reporting |
Relocating the headquarters might also result in the loss of employees who are unwilling to travel the extra distance which could stress the existing management team |
If we do not comply with the numerous laws and regulations that govern our business, our business could be harmed |
Each of our stores must comply with regulations adopted by Federal agencies and with licensing and other regulations enforced by state and local health, sanitation, safety, fire and other departments |
More stringent and varied requirements of local governmental bodies with respect to zoning, land use and environmental factors, and difficulties or failures in obtaining the required licenses or approvals, can delay and sometimes prevent the opening of a new store |
In addition, we comply with the Fair Labor Standards Act and various state laws governing various matters such as minimum wage, overtime and other working conditions |
We also comply with the provisions of the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, as amended, which requires generally that employers provide reasonable accommodation for employees with disabilities and that stores be accessible to customers with disabilities |
However, future violations of such laws, the enactment of stricter laws or regulations or the implementation of more aggressive enforcement policies could adversely affect our operations or financial condition |
If we are unable to hire additional qualified personnel or retain existing personnel, we may not be able to operate our business successfully |
Our success depends upon the efforts of our senior management and other key personnel |
The loss of the services of any member of our management team or a key employee, or a failure to timely retain a replacement officer could have a material adverse effect on us |
Our future success will also depend in part on attracting and retaining quality employees |
Many of our employees are in entry level or part-time positions with historically high rates of turnover |
Our ability to meet our labor needs while controlling costs is subject to external factors, such as unemployment levels, minimum wage legislation and changing demographics |
There can be no assurance that we will be successful in retaining our existing key personnel or in attracting and retaining additional employees we may require |
Any difficulties in obtaining, retaining and training qualified personnel could have a material adverse effect on us |
Higher administrative expenses could adversely affect our business and operations |
Higher selling, general and administrative expenses occasioned by the potential need for additional advertising, marketing, administrative or management information systems expenditures could negatively impact our business and operations |
9 ______________________________________________________________________ [36]Table of Contents Interruption or obsolescence of our management information systems could have a negative effect on our competitive ability and our business generally |
We believe that our management information systems are an important factor in supporting our business and enhancing our competitive position in the industry |
Over the past three years, we have invested significant resources in systems and infrastructure to support our business and make it more efficient |
We use a management information and control system, which is based on the JDA Merchandise Management System software package (“JDA”) and supports the complete range of retail cycle functions in the areas of finance, merchandising and distribution |
All stores are linked to our headquarters through personal computers, which interface with an IBM AS/400 and provide auto-replenishment of inventory and the ability to enter payroll information and send and receive electronic mail |
These personal computers are also tied into our point-of-sale system (“POS system”) |
The POS system provides sales information to our stores and central office and is used to enhance merchandise planning and buying programs |
In the second half of Fiscal 2005, we integrated JDA’s Portfolio Advanced Replenishment by E3^® suite and JDA’s Seasonal Profiling by Intellect^™ into our existing JDA Merchandise Management System installation |
This highly regarded retail system provides sophisticated demand forecasting and functionalities such as seasonal profiling, exception management and promotional sales planning that will enable us to optimize store replenishment while reducing overall inventory |
Any obsolescence or continuing interruption in the functioning of these systems could have a negative effect on our ability to compete effectively in the industry and on our business |
Our warrants and stock options may have significant dilutive effects on holders of Common Stock generally |
Pursuant to our bankruptcy plan of reorganization, we issued four series of warrants to holders of our old pre-bankruptcy common stock to purchase up to approximately 10prca (subject to certain dilution events) of the Common Stock issued under the bankruptcy plan (assuming exercise of all such warrants) |
These four series of warrants are exercisable for terms ranging from four to eight years from the issuance date |
We currently have stock option plans pursuant to which we have the authority to issue options to our employees and directors for up to 1cmam133cmam334 shares of our Common Stock |
As of January 28, 2006, there were options issued to purchase 839cmam517 shares of our Common Stock outstanding with a weighted average exercise price of dlra6dtta22 per share |
The issuance of shares of Common Stock pursuant to the exercise of the four series of warrants, the exercise of stock options, and the anti-dilution rights protection of the warrants issued to management could significantly dilute the holders of Common Stock currently issued and outstanding |
Certain provisions of our charter may prevent or delay a change of control of the Company |
Our certificate of incorporation provides for a classified Board of Directors |
Any effort to obtain control of our Board of Directors by causing the election of a majority of the Board of Directors may require more time than would be required without a staggered election structure |
Our certificate of incorporation also imposes restrictions on the direct or indirect transferability of our Common Stock, subject to certain exceptions, such that no person or certain groups of persons (x) may acquire or accumulate five percent (5prca) or more (as determined under tax law principles governing the application of Section 382 of the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended) of the Common Stock or (y) who, upon implementation of the Plan, owns 5prca or more of the Common Stock, may acquire additional Common Stock |
These provisions would have the effect of preventing a change of control for the duration of such restrictions |
During Fiscal 2005, permission to exceed the 5prca threshold was requested by and granted to three independent parties |
Adverse publicity could adversely affect our business |
We generally operate in medium-sized towns and suburban neighborhoods |
Adverse publicity or news coverage relating to us could negatively impact our efforts to establish and promote name recognition and a positive image |
10 ______________________________________________________________________ [37]Table of Contents Our stock price may be volatile and could decline |
Our Common Stock has had limited trading activity |
We cannot predict the extent to which investor interest in our stock will lead to the development of a more active trading market, how liquid that market might become or whether it will be sustained |
The trading price of our Common Stock could be subject to wide fluctuations due to the factors discussed in this risk factors section and elsewhere in this document, including: our operating results failing to meet the expectations of our investors; material announcements by us or our competitors; governmental regulatory action; or adverse changes in general market conditions or economic trends |
In addition, the stock markets in general have experienced extreme price and volume fluctuations |
These broad market and industry factors may decrease the market price of our Common Stock, regardless of our actual operating performance |
We do not anticipate paying dividends |
We have not paid dividends on our Common Stock and we do not anticipate paying dividends in the foreseeable future |
We intend to retain future earnings, if any, to finance the expansion of our operations and for general corporate purposes, including future acquisitions |
In addition, our financing facility prohibits us from paying dividends on our capital stock |