CREDO PETROLEUM CORP ITEM 1A RISK FACTORS In evaluating the company, careful consideration should be given to the following risk factors, in addition to the other information included or incorporated by reference in this Annual Report on Form 10-K Each of these risk factors could adversely affect the company’s business, operating results and financial condition, as well as adversely affect the value of an investment in the company’s common stock |
Volatility of oil and natural gas prices could adversely affect the company’s profitability and financial condition |
The company’s performance in terms of revenues, operating results, profitability, future rate of growth and the carrying value of its oil and natural gas properties is significantly impacted by prevailing market prices for oil and natural gas |
Any substantial or extended decline in the price of oil or natural gas could have a material adverse effect on the company |
It could reduce the company’s operating cash flow as well as the value and, to a lesser degree, the quantity of its oil and natural gas reserves |
Historically, the markets for oil and natural gas have been volatile, and they are likely to continue to be volatile |
Relatively minor changes in supply or demand can have a significant effect on oil and natural gas prices |
Some of the factors affecting oil and natural gas prices which are beyond the company’s control include: • worldwide and domestic supplies of oil and natural gas; • worldwide and domestic demand for oil and natural gas; • the ability of the members of OPEC to agree to and maintain oil price and production controls; • political instability or armed conflict in oil or natural gas producing regions; • worldwide and domestic economic conditions; • the availability of transportation facilities; • weather patterns; and • actions of governmental authorities |
Competition for opportunities to replace and increase production and reserves is intense and could adversely affect the company |
7 _________________________________________________________________ [67]Table of Contents Properties produce at a declining rate over time |
In order to maintain current production rates the company must add new oil and natural gas reserves to replace those being depleted by production |
Competition within the oil and natural gas industry is intense and many of the company’s competitors have financial and other resources substantially greater than those available to the company |
This could place the company at a disadvantage with respect to accessing opportunities to maintain, or increase, its oil and natural gas reserve base |
In the event that the company does not have adequate cash flow to fund operations, it may be required to use debt or equity financing |
The company makes, and will continue to make, significant expenditures to find, acquire, develop and produce oil and natural gas reserves |
If oil and natural gas prices decrease, or if operating difficulties are encountered that result in cash flow from operations being less than expected, the company may have to reduce capital expenditures unless additional funds are raised through debt or equity financing |
Debt or equity financing or cash generated by operations may not be available to the company in sufficient amounts or on acceptable terms to meet these requirements |
Future cash flows and the availability of financing will be subject to a number of variables, such as: • the company’s success in locating and producing new reserves; • the level of production from existing wells; and • prices of oil and natural gas; Issuing equity securities to satisfy the company’s financing requirements could cause substantial dilution to existing stockholders |
Debt financing could make the company more vulnerable to competitive pressures and economic downturns |
This Annual Report on Form 10-K contains estimates of the company’s proved oil and natural gas reserves and the estimated future net revenues from those reserves |
Any significant negative variance in these estimates could have a material adverse effect on the company’s future performance |
Reserve estimates are based on various assumptions, including assumptions required by the SEC relating to oil and natural gas prices, drilling and operating expenses, capital expenditures, taxes and availability of funds |
This process requires significant decisions and assumptions in the evaluation of available geological, geophysical, engineering and economic data |
Reserve estimates are dependent on many variables, and therefore, as more information becomes available, it is reasonable to expect that there will be changes to the estimates |
Actual future production, oil and natural gas prices, revenues, taxes, development expenditures, operating expenses and quantities of recoverable oil and natural gas reserves will most likely vary from those estimated |
Any significant variance could materially affect the estimated quantities and present value of reserves disclosed by the company |
In addition, estimates of proved reserves will be adjusted in the future to reflect production history, results of exploration and development, prevailing oil and natural gas prices and other factors, many of which are beyond the company’s control |
As of October 31, 2005, approximately 11prca of the company’s estimated proved reserves are classified as proved undeveloped |
Estimation of proved undeveloped reserves and proved developed non-producing reserves is generally based on volumetric calculations rather than the performance data used to estimate reserves for producing properties |
Recovery of proved undeveloped reserves generally requires significant capital expenditures and successful drilling operations |
Revenues from proved developed non-producing and proved undeveloped reserves will not be realized until some time in the future |
The reserve estimate includes an estimate of the capital expenditures required to develop these reserves as well as the 8 _________________________________________________________________ [68]Table of Contents timing of such expenditures |
Although the company has prepared estimates of its proved undeveloped reserves and the associated development costs in accordance with industry standards, they are based on estimates, and actual results may vary |
You should not interpret the present value of estimated reserves, or PV-10, as the current market value of reserves attributable to the company’s properties |
The 10prca discount factor, which we are required to use to calculate PV-10 for reporting purposes, is not necessarily the most appropriate discount factor given actual interest rates and risks to which the company’s business or the oil and natural gas industry in general are subject |
The company has based the PV-10 on prices and costs as of the date of the reserve estimate, in accordance with applicable regulations |
Actual future prices and costs may be materially higher or lower |
In addition to the price volatility factors discussed above, factors that will affect actual future net cash flows, include: • the amount and timing of actual production; • curtailments or increases in consumption by oil and natural gas purchasers; and • changes in governmental regulations or taxation |
As a result, the company’s actual future net cash flows could be materially different from the estimates included in this Annual Report on Form 10-K The company’s reserve quantities and values are concentrated in a relative few properties and fields |
The company’s reserves, and reserve values, are concentrated in 54 properties which represent 28prca of the company’s total properties but a disproportionate 76prca of the discounted value (at 10prca) of the company’s reserves |
Individual wells on which Calliope is installed comprise 22prca of these significant properties and 32prca of the discounted reserve value of such properties |
Relatively new wells comprise 22prca of these significant properties and 24prca of the discounted reserve value of such properties |
Estimates of reserve quantities and values for these properties must be viewed as being subject to significant change as more data about the properties becomes available |
Such properties include wells with limited production histories and properties with proved undeveloped or proved non-producing reserves |
In addition, Calliope is generally installed on mature wells |
As such, they contain older down-hole equipment that is more subject to failure than new equipment |
The failure of such equipment, particularly casing, can result in complete loss of a well |
Competition for materials and services is intense and could adversely affect the company |
Major oil companies, independent producers, and institutional and individual investors are actively seeking oil and gas properties throughout the world, along with the equipment, labor and materials required to develop and operate properties |
Shortages for equipment, labor or materials may result in increased costs or the inability to obtain such resources as needed |
Many of the company’s competitors have financial and technological resources which exceed those available to the company |
The company’s hedging arrangements involve credit risk and may limit future revenues from price increases |
To manage the company’s exposure to price risks associated with the sale of natural gas, the company periodically enters into hedging transactions for a portion of its estimated natural gas production |
These transactions may limit the company’s potential gains if natural gas prices were to rise substantially over the price established by the hedge |
In addition, such transactions may expose the company to the risk of financial loss in certain circumstances, including instances in which: • the company’s production is less than expected; • the contractual counterparties fail to perform under the contracts; or 9 _________________________________________________________________ [69]Table of Contents • a sudden, unexpected event, materially impacts natural gas prices |
The terms of the company’s hedging agreements may also require that it furnish cash collateral, letters of credit or other forms of performance assurance in the event that mark-to-market calculations result in settlement obligations by the company to the counterparties, which would encumber the company’s liquidity and capital resources |
Basis risk in a hedging contract occurs when the index upon which the contract is based is more or less variable than the index upon which the hedged asset is based, thereby making the hedge less effective |
The marketability of the company’s natural gas production is dependent upon infrastructure, such as gathering systems, pipelines and processing facilities, that the company does not own or control |
The marketability of the company’s natural gas production depends in part upon the availability, proximity and capacity of natural gas gathering systems, pipelines and processing facilities necessary to move the company’s natural gas production to market |
The company does not own this infrastructure and is dependent on other companies to provide it |
Oil and natural gas operations are inherently risky |
The oil and natural gas business involves a variety of risks, including the risks of operating hazards such as fires, explosions, cratering, blow-outs, and encountering formations with abnormal pressures |
The occurrence of any of these risks could result in losses |
We maintain insurance against some, but not all, of these risks |
Management believes that the level of insurance against these risks is reasonable and is in accordance with industry practices |
The occurrence of a significant event, however, that is not fully insured could have a material adverse effect on our financial position and results of operations |
The company’s operations are subject to a variety of contractual, regulatory and other constraints |
The production and sale of oil and natural gas are subject to a variety of federal, state and local government regulations |
These include: • the prevention of waste; • the discharge of materials into the environment; • the conservation of oil and natural gas; • pollution; • permits for drilling operations; • drilling bonds; • reports concerning operations; • the spacing of wells; and • the unitization and pooling of properties |
Because current regulations covering the company’s operations are subject to change at any time, and despite its belief that it is in substantial compliance with applicable environmental and other government laws and regulations, the company may incur significant costs for future compliance |
Increases in taxes on energy sources may adversely affect the company’s operations |
Federal, state and local governments which have jurisdiction in areas where the company operates impose taxes on the oil and natural gas products sold |
Historically, there has been on-going consideration by federal, state and local officials concerning a variety of energy tax proposals |
Such matters are beyond the company’s ability to accurately predict or control |
10 _________________________________________________________________ [70]Table of Contents The company is highly dependent on the services of one of its officers |
The company is highly dependent on the services of James T Huffman, our President and Chief Executive Officer |