COUNTRYWIDE FINANCIAL CORP Item 1A Risk Factors Forward-Looking Statements Factors That May Affect Our Future Results We make forward-looking statements in this Report and in other reports we file with the SEC In addition, we make forward-looking statements in press releases and our management may make forward-looking statements orally to analysts, investors, the media and others |
Generally, forward-looking statements include: · Projections of our revenues, income, earnings per share, capital structure or other financial items · Descriptions of our plans or objectives for future operations, products or services · Forecasts of our future economic performance, interest rates, profit margins and our share of future markets · Descriptions of assumptions underlying or relating to any of the foregoing Forward-looking statements give management’s expectation about the future and are not guarantees |
Words like “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “promise,” “plan” and other expressions or words of similar meanings, as well as future or conditional verbs such as “will,” “would,” “should,” “could,” or “may” are generally intended to identify forward-looking statements |
There are a number of factors, many of which 32 ______________________________________________________________________ are beyond our control, that could cause actual results to differ significantly from management’s expectations |
Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements |
Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made |
We do not undertake to update them to reflect changes that occur after the date they are made |
General business, economic, market and political conditions may significantly affect our earnings Our business and earnings are sensitive to general business and economic conditions in the United States |
These conditions include short-term and long-term interest rates, inflation, fluctuations in both debt and equity capital markets, and the strength of the US economy, as well as the local economies in which we conduct business |
If any of these conditions worsen, our business and earnings could be adversely affected |
For example, a rising interest rate environment could decrease the demand for loans; or, business and economic conditions that negatively impact household incomes could decrease the demand for our home loans and increase the number of customers who become delinquent or default on their loans |
The risk of borrower default becomes more important to our business as our portfolio of loans held for investment continues to grow |
In addition, our business and earnings are significantly affected by the fiscal and monetary policies of the federal government and its agencies |
We are particularly affected by the policies of the Federal Reserve Board, which regulates the supply of money and credit in the United States |
The Federal Reserve Board’s policies influence the size of the mortgage origination market, which significantly impacts the earnings of our Loan Production Sector and the value of our investment in MSRs and other retained interests |
The Federal Reserve Board’s policies also influence the yield on our interest-earning assets and the cost of our interest-bearing liabilities |
Changes in those policies are beyond our control and difficult to predict and can have a material effect on the Company’s business, results of operations and financial condition |
Political conditions can also impact our earnings |
Acts or threats of war or terrorism, as well as actions taken by the US or other governments in response to such acts or threats, could impact business and economic conditions in the United States |
The volatility of our mortgage banking business may significantly affect our earnings The level and volatility of interest rates significantly affect the mortgage banking industry |
For example, a decline in mortgage rates generally increases the demand for home loans as borrowers refinance, but also generally leads to accelerated payoffs in our mortgage servicing portfolio, which negatively impacts the value of our MSRs |
We attempt to manage interest rate risk in our mortgage banking business primarily through the natural counterbalance of our loan production and servicing operations |
In addition, we also use derivatives extensively in order to manage the interest rate, or price risk, inherent in our assets, liabilities and loan commitments |
Our main objective in managing interest rate risk is to moderate the impact of changes in interest rates on our earnings over time |
Our interest rate risk management strategies may result in significant earnings volatility in the short term |
The success of our interest rate risk management strategy is largely dependent on our ability to predict the earnings sensitivity of our loan servicing and loan production operations in various interest rate environments |
There are many market factors that impact the performance of our interest rate risk management activities including interest rate volatility, the shape of the yield curve and the spread between mortgage interest rates and Treasury or swap rates |
The success of this strategy impacts our net income |
This impact, which can be either positive or negative, can be material |
33 ______________________________________________________________________ Our accounting policies and methods are fundamental to how we report our financial condition and results of operations, and they may require management to make estimates about matters that are inherently uncertain We have identified several accounting policies as being “critical” to the presentation of our financial condition and results of operations because they require management to make particularly subjective or complex judgments about matters that are inherently uncertain and because of the likelihood that materially different amounts would be recorded under different conditions or using different assumptions |
These critical accounting policies relate to our gain from sale of loans and securities, valuation of retained interests and interest rate management activities |
Because of the inherent uncertainty of the estimates associated with these critical accounting policies, we cannot provide any assurance that we will not make significant subsequent adjustments to the related amounts recorded |
For more information, please refer to the “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Critical Accounting Policies” section in this Report |
The financial services industry is highly competitive We operate in a highly competitive industry that could become even more competitive as a result of economic, legislative, regulatory and technological changes |
Competition for mortgage loans comes primarily from large commercial banks and savings institutions |
Many of our competitors have fewer regulatory constraints |
For example, national banks and federal savings and loan institutions are not subject to certain state laws and regulations targeted at predatory lending practices and we could be at a competitive disadvantage with respect to fulfilling legitimate nonprime credit opportunities |
Another competitive consideration is that other companies have lower cost structures and others are less reliant on the secondary mortgage market for funding due to their greater portfolio lending capacity |
We face competition in such areas as mortgage product offerings, rates and fees, and customer service, both at the retail and institutional level |
In addition, technological advances and heightened e-commerce activities have increased consumers’ accessibility to products and services generally |
This has intensified competition among banking as well as nonbanking companies in offering financial products and services, with or without the need for a physical presence |
Negative public opinion could damage our reputation and adversely impact our earnings Reputation risk, or the risk to our business, earnings and capital from negative public opinion, is inherent in our business |
Negative public opinion can result from our actual or alleged conduct in any number of activities, including lending practices, corporate governance and acquisitions, and from actions taken by government regulators and community organizations in response to those activities |
Negative public opinion can adversely affect our ability to keep and attract customers and employees and can expose us to litigation and regulatory action |
Because virtually all of our businesses operate under the “Countrywide” brand, actual or alleged conduct by one business can result in negative public opinion about other Countrywide businesses |
Although we take steps to minimize reputation risk in dealing with our customers and communities, as a large diversified financial services company with a relatively high industry profile, this risk will always be present in our organization |
Changes in regulations could adversely affect our business We are heavily regulated by banking, mortgage lending and insurance laws at the federal, state and local levels, and proposals for further regulation of the financial services industry are continually being introduced |
We are subject to many other federal, state and local laws and regulations that affect our business, including those regarding taxation and privacy |
Congress and state legislatures, as well as federal and state regulatory agencies, review such laws, regulations and policies and periodically propose changes that could affect us in substantial and unpredictable ways |
Such changes could, for example, limit the types of financial services and products we offer, or limit our liability or increase our cost to offer such services 34 ______________________________________________________________________ and products |
It is possible that one or more legislative proposals may be adopted or regulatory changes may be implemented that would have an adverse effect on our business |
Our failure to comply with such laws or regulations, whether actual or alleged, could expose us to fines, penalties or potential litigation liabilities, including costs, settlements and judgments, any of which could adversely affect our earnings |
We depend on the accuracy and completeness of information about customers and counterparties In deciding whether to extend credit or enter into other transactions with customers and counterparties, we may rely on information furnished to us by or on behalf of customers and counterparties, including financial statements and other financial information |
We also may rely on representations of customers and counterparties as to the accuracy and completeness of that information and, with respect to financial statements, on reports of independent auditors |
For example, in deciding whether to extend credit to institutional customers, we may assume that a customer’s audited financial statements conform with GAAP and present fairly, in all material respects, the financial condition, results of operations and cash flows of the customer |
Our financial condition and results of operations could be negatively impacted to the extent we rely on financial statements that do not comply with GAAP or are materially misleading |
We are exposed to operational risks Countrywide, like all large corporations, is exposed to many types of operational risk, including the risk of fraud by employees or outsiders, unauthorized transactions by employees or operational errors, including clerical or record-keeping errors or those resulting from faulty or disabled computer or telecommunications systems |
Given the high volume of transactions at Countrywide, certain errors may be repeated or compounded before they are discovered and successfully corrected |
Our dependence upon automated systems to record and process transaction volume may further increase the risk that technical system flaws or employee tampering or manipulation of those systems will result in losses that are difficult to detect |
We may be subject to disruptions of our systems, arising from events that are wholly or partially beyond our control (including, for example, computer viruses or electrical or telecommunications outages), which may give rise to losses in service to customers and to loss or liability |
We are exposed to the risk that our external vendors may be unable to fulfill their contractual obligation to us (or will be subject to the same risk of fraud or operational errors by their respective employees as we are), and to the risk that our (or our vendors’) business continuity and data security systems prove not to be adequate to allow us to resume operations in the event of a disruption to our (or our vendors’) operations |
We also face the risk that the design of our controls and procedures prove inadequate or are circumvented, thereby causing delays in detection or errors in information |
Although we maintain a system of controls designed to keep operational risk at appropriate levels, there can be no assurance that we will not suffer losses from operational risks in the future that may be material in amount |
Other Factors The above description of risk factors is not exhaustive |
Other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from historical results or those anticipated include, but are not limited to: · A general decline in US housing prices or in activity in the US housing market · A loss of investment-grade credit ratings, which may result in increased cost of debt or loss of access to corporate debt markets · A reduction in the availability of secondary markets for our mortgage loan products · A reduction in government support of homeownership · A change in our relationship with the housing-related government agencies and Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs) 35 ______________________________________________________________________ · Changes in regulations or the occurrence of other events that impact the business, operation or prospects of GSEs · Ineffectiveness of our hedging activities · The level and volatility of interest rates · Changes in interest rate paths · Changes in generally accepted accounting principles or in the legal, regulatory and legislative environments in the markets in which the Company operates · The ability of management to effectively implement the Company’s strategies · The level of competition in each of our business segments · The occurrence of natural disasters or other events or circumstances that could impact our operations or could impact the level of claims in the Insurance Segment Other risk factors are described elsewhere herein as well as in other reports and documents that we file with or furnish to the SEC Other factors that could also cause results to differ from our expectations may not be described in any such report or document |
Each of these factors could by itself, or together with one or more other factors, adversely affect our business, results of operations and/or financial condition |