ASTORIA FINANCIAL CORP Item 1A Risk Factors |
29 ITEM 1A RISK FACTORS The following is a summary of risk factors relevant to our operations which should be carefully reviewed |
These risk factors do not necessarily appear in the order of importance |
Our earnings depend largely on the relationship between the yield on our interest-earning assets, primarily our mortgage loans and mortgage-backed securities, and the cost of our deposits and borrowings |
This relationship, known as the interest rate spread, is subject to fluctuation and is affected by economic and competitive factors which influence market interest rates, the volume and mix of interest-earning assets and interest-bearing liabilities, and the level of non-performing assets |
Fluctuations in market interest rates affect customer demand for our products and services |
We are subject to interest rate risk to the degree that our interest-bearing liabilities reprice or mature more slowly or more rapidly or on a different basis than our interest-earning assets |
In addition, the actual amount of time before mortgage loans and mortgage-backed securities are repaid can be significantly impacted by changes in mortgage prepayment rates and market interest rates |
Mortgage prepayment rates will vary due to a number of factors, including the regional economy in the area where the underlying mortgages were originated, seasonal factors, demographic variables and the assumability of the underlying mortgages |
However, the major factors affecting prepayment rates are prevailing interest rates, related mortgage refinancing opportunities and competition |
Some of our borrowings contain features that would allow them to be called prior to their contractual maturity |
This would generally occur during periods of rising interest rates |
If this were to occur, we would need to either renew the borrowings at a potentially higher rate of interest, which would negatively impact our net interest income, or repay such borrowings |
If we sell securities to fund the repayment of such borrowings, any decline in estimated market value with respect to the securities sold would be realized and could result in a loss upon such sale |
During 2005, the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, raised the federal funds rate eight times (a total of 200 basis points) |
As a result, US Treasury yields at December 31, 2005 have increased from December 31, 2004, with the exception of the thirty year US Treasury yield, which has decreased |
Although US Treasury yields have risen, yields on the longer end of the US Treasury yield curve have not risen to the same degree as shorter term yields |
This has resulted in a significant flattening of the US Treasury yield curve, which began in the latter half of 2004 and continued during 2005 |
Our short-term borrowings, as well as our deposits, are generally priced relative to short-term US Treasury yields whereas our mortgage loans and mortgage-backed securities are generally priced relative to medium-term (two to five years) US Treasury yields |
The flattening of the yield curve reduces the spread between the yield on our interest-earning assets and the cost of our deposits and borrowings, thereby reducing our net income |
29 Interest rates do and will continue to fluctuate, and we cannot predict future Federal Reserve Board actions or other factors that will cause rates to change |
Changes in interest rates may reduce our stockholders &apos equity |
At December 31, 2005, dlra1dtta84 billion of our securities were classified as available-for-sale |
The estimated fair value of our available-for-sale securities portfolio may increase or decrease depending on changes in interest rates |
In general, as interest rates rise, the estimated fair value of our fixed rate securities portfolio will decrease |
Our securities portfolio is comprised primarily of fixed rate securities |
We increase or decrease stockholders &apos equity by the amount of the change in estimated fair value of our available-for-sale securities portfolio, net of the related tax benefit, under the category of accumulated other comprehensive income/loss |
Therefore, a decline in the estimated fair value of this portfolio will result in a decline in reported stockholders &apos equity, as well as book value per common share and tangible book value per common share |
This decrease will occur even though the securities are not sold |
If these securities are never sold, the decrease will be recovered over the life of the securities |
Our results of operations are affected by economic conditions in the New York metropolitan area |
Our retail banking and a significant portion of our lending business (41dtta6prca of our mortgage loan portfolio at December 31, 2005) are concentrated in the New York metropolitan area |
As a result of this geographic concentration, our results of operations largely depend upon economic conditions in this area |
Decreases in real estate values could adversely affect the value of property used as collateral for our loans |
Adverse changes in the economy caused by inflation, recession, unemployment or other factors beyond our control may also have a negative effect on the ability of our borrowers to make timely loan payments, which would have an adverse impact on our earnings |
Consequently, a deterioration in economic conditions in the New York metropolitan area could have a material adverse impact on the quality of our loan portfolio, which could result in an increase in delinquencies, causing a decrease in our interest income as well as an adverse impact on our loan loss experience, causing an increase in our allowance for loan losses |
Such a deterioration also could adversely impact the demand for our products and services, and, accordingly, on our results of operations |
Strong competition within our market areas could hurt our profits and slow growth |
The New York metropolitan area has a high density of financial institutions, a number of which are significantly larger and have greater financial resources than we have |
Additionally over the past several years, various large out-of-state financial institutions have entered the New York metropolitan area market |
All are our competitors to varying degrees |
We face intense competition both in making loans and attracting deposits |
Our competition for loans, both locally and in the aggregate, comes principally from mortgage banking companies, commercial banks, savings banks and savings and loan associations |
Our most direct competition for deposits comes from commercial banks, savings banks, savings and loan associations and credit unions |
We also face competition for deposits from money market mutual funds and other corporate and government securities funds as well as from other financial intermediaries such as brokerage firms and insurance companies |
Price competition for loans and deposits might result in us earning less on our loans and paying more on our deposits, which would reduce our net interest income |
Competition also makes it more difficult to grow our loan and deposit balances |
Our profitability depends upon our continued ability to compete successfully in our market areas |
Our increased emphasis on multi-family and commercial real estate lending may expose us to increased lending risks |
At December 31, 2005, dlra3dtta90 billion, or 27dtta3prca, of our total loan portfolio consisted of multi-family and commercial real estate loans |
While we continue to primarily be a one-to-four family mortgage lender, over the past several years we have increased our emphasis on multi-family and commercial real estate 30 loan originations and intend to continue to emphasize this type of lending |
Multi-family and commercial real estate loans generally involve a greater degree of credit risk than one-to-four family loans because they typically have larger balances and are more affected by adverse conditions in the economy |
Because payments on loans secured by multi-family properties and commercial real estate often depend upon the successful operation and management of the properties and the businesses which operate from within them, repayment of such loans may be affected by factors outside the borrowerapstas control, such as adverse conditions in the real estate market or the economy or changes in government regulation |
As a result of our efforts to continue to grow the multi-family and commercial real estate loan portfolios, we have increased our emphasis on originations of multi-family and commercial real estate loans in states other than New York |
Originations in states other than New York represented 34dtta6prca of our total originations of multi-family and commercial real estate loans in 2005, of which 85dtta9prca were originated in New Jersey, Connecticut and Florida |
We could be subject to additional risks with respect to multi-family and commercial real estate lending in states other than New York as we have less experience in these areas with this type of lending and less direct oversight of the borrowers |
Astoria Federalapstas ability to pay dividends or lend funds to us is subject to regulatory limitations which, to the extent we need but are not able to access such funds, may prevent us from making future dividend payments or principal and interest payments due on our debt obligations |
We are a unitary savings and loan association holding company regulated by the OTS and almost all of our operating assets are owned by Astoria Federal |
We rely primarily on dividends from Astoria Federal to pay cash dividends to our stockholders, to engage in share repurchase programs and to pay principal and interest on our debt obligations |
The OTS regulates all capital distributions by Astoria Federal directly or indirectly to us, including dividend payments |
As the subsidiary of a savings and loan association holding company, Astoria Federal must file a notice with the OTS at least 30 days prior to each capital distribution |
However, if the total amount of all capital distributions (including each proposed capital distribution) for the applicable calendar year exceeds net income for that year to date plus the retained net income for the preceding two years, then Astoria Federal must file an application to receive the approval of the OTS for a proposed capital distribution |
In addition, Astoria Federal may not pay dividends to us if, after paying those dividends, it would fail to meet the required minimum levels under risk-based capital guidelines and the minimum leverage and tangible capital ratio requirements or the OTS notified Astoria Federal that it was in need of more than normal supervision |
Under the prompt corrective action provisions of the FDIA, an insured depository institution such as Astoria Federal is prohibited from making a capital distribution, including the payment of dividends, if, after making such distribution, the institution would become "e undercapitalized "e (as such term is used in the FDIA) |
Based on Astoria Federalapstas current financial condition, we do not expect that this provision will have any impact on our ability to obtain dividends from Astoria Federal |
Payment of dividends by Astoria Federal also may be restricted at any time at the discretion of the appropriate regulator if it deems the payment to constitute an unsafe or unsound banking practice |
There can be no assurance that Astoria Federal will be able to pay dividends at past levels, or at all, in the future |
In addition to regulatory restrictions on the payment of dividends, Astoria Federal is subject to certain restrictions imposed by federal law on any extensions of credit it makes to its affiliates and on investments in stock or other securities of its affiliates |
These restrictions prevent affiliates of Astoria Federal, including us, from borrowing from Astoria Federal, unless various types of collateral secure the loans |
Federal law limits the aggregate amount of loans to and investments in any single affiliate to 10prca of Astoria Federalapstas capital stock and surplus and also limits the aggregate amount of loans to and investments in all affiliates to 20prca of Astoria Federalapstas capital stock and surplus |
31 If we do not receive sufficient cash dividends or borrowings from Astoria Federal, then we may not have sufficient funds to pay dividends, repurchase our common stock or service our debt obligations |
We operate in a highly regulated industry, which limits the manner and scope of our business activities |
We are subject to extensive supervision, regulation and examination by the OTS and by the FDIC As a result, we are limited in the manner in which we conduct our business, undertake new investments and activities and obtain financing |
This regulatory structure is designed primarily for the protection of the deposit insurance funds and our depositors, and not to benefit our stockholders |
This regulatory structure also gives the regulatory authorities extensive discretion in connection with their supervisory and enforcement activities and examination policies, including policies with respect to capital levels, the timing and amount of dividend payments, the classification of assets and the establishment of adequate loan loss reserves for regulatory purposes |
In addition, we must comply with significant anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism laws |
Government agencies have substantial discretion to impose significant monetary penalties on institutions which fail to comply with these laws |
Changes in laws, government regulation and monetary policy may have a material effect on our results of operations |
Financial institution regulation has been the subject of significant legislation and may be the subject of further significant legislation in the future, none of which is in our control |
Significant new laws or changes in, or repeals of, existing laws, including with respect to federal and state taxation, may cause our results of operations to differ materially |
In addition, cost of compliance could adversely affect our ability to operate profitably |
Further, federal monetary policy significantly affects credit conditions for Astoria Federal, particularly as implemented through the Federal Reserve System, primarily through open market operations in US government securities, the discount rate for bank borrowings and reserve requirements |
A material change in any of these conditions would have a material impact on Astoria Federal, and therefore on our results of operations |