AMERICAN PHYSICIANS CAPITAL INC Item 1A Risk Factors |
An investment in our common stock involves numerous risks and uncertainties |
You should carefully consider the following information about these risks |
Any of the risks described below could result in a significant or material adverse effect on our future results of operations, cash flows or financial condition |
The most significant of these risks and uncertainties are as follows: Increased competition could adversely affect our ability to sell our products at premium rates we deem adequate, which may result in a decrease in premium volume, a decrease in our profitability, or both |
The medical professional liability insurance business tends to cycle through what are often referred to as “hard” and “soft” markets |
A hard market is generally characterized as a period of rapidly raising premium rates, tightened underwriting standards, narrowed coverage and the withdrawal of insurers from certain markets |
Soft markets are usually characterized by relatively flat or slow-rising premium rates, less stringent underwriting standards, expanded coverage and strong competition among insurers |
Since approximately 2001, the trend in medical professional liability has been towards a harder market |
This change in trend and the accompanying competitive pressures could adversely impact our ability to obtain rate increases we deem necessary to adequately cover insured risks, which could ultimately result in a decrease in premium volume as physicians currently insured with us elect to place their coverage elsewhere or an increase in related underwriting and loss and loss adjustment expenses |
Each of these outcomes could have a material adverse effect on our future results of operations |
Our reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses are based on estimates that may prove to be inadequate to cover our losses |
The process of estimating the reserves for unpaid losses and loss adjustment expenses involves significant judgment and is complex and imprecise due to the number of variables and assumptions inherent in the 9 _________________________________________________________________ estimation process |
These variables include the effects on ultimate loss payments of internal factors such as changes in claims handling practices and changes in the mix of our products, as well as external factors such as changes in loss frequence and severity trends, economic inflation, judicial trends and legislative and regulatory changes |
In addition, medical professional liability claims may take several years to resolve due to typical delays in reporting claims to us, the often lengthy discovery process, and the time necessary to defend the claim |
Also, claims with similar characteristics may result in very different ultimate losses depending on the state or region where the claim occurred |
All of these factors contribute to the variability in estimating ultimate loss payments, especially since the effects of many of these variables cannot be directly quantified, and may require us to make significant adjustments in our reserves from time to time |
Any such adjustments could materially and adversely affect our results of operations for the period with respect to which the adjustment is made |
Due to the current volatility of losses in the medical professional liability and workers’ compensation markets, adjustments have occurred in each of the last several years |
Our exit from various markets and lines of business may prove more costly than originally anticipated |
Our exit from various lines of business, such as the workers’ compensation, health and personal and commercial lines of business, and from various geographic markets could result in future charges to income due to unforeseen costs or the need for unanticipated reserve enhancements |
Additional reserve enhancements may be necessary due to the volatility of loss reserves on these run-off lines |
Run-off lines typically have increased volatility as paid claim trends often emerge differently than those that have been historically indicated, thus increasing the uncertainty inherent in reserve estimates, especially on longer-tailed lines such as workers’ compensation |
In addition, most states where we have historically written workers’ compensation insurance have second injury funds and state mandated workers’ compensation pools for high-risk employers and industries |
Because of the nature of the participation in these funds and pools, they typically bear higher loss costs than traditional workers’ compensation insurance |
This higher risk factor, combined with the long-tailed nature of workers’ compensation claims, means that losses related to accident years in which we participated in the pools may not yet have emerged and additional assumed losses may materialize, which could affect the profitability of our operations |
Tort reform legislation may have adverse or unintended consequences that could materially and adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition |
Proposed new laws which would limit jury awards for non-economic damages relating to medical malpractice claims have been a point of debate at the national level for the past several years |
While the passage of national tort reform would appear to be a positive development for our business, many states in which we operate have already enacted some version of tort reform at the state level, which in some cases is more favorable than that currently being contemplated at the national level |
If national tort reform is enacted that supersedes more favorable state tort reforms, our loss costs may increase in certain markets |
In addition, recently passed tort reform legislation in Illinois has made more burdensome certain reporting requirements regarding rate filings |
As a consequence, an increase in claims frequency or severity may adversely affect our results of operations as it may be more difficult to obtain approval from regulators for rate increases the Company deems necessary |
If we are unable to obtain or collect on ceded reinsurance, our results of operations and financial condition may be adversely affected |
We use reinsurance arrangements to limit and manage the amount of risk we retain and stabilize our underwriting results |
The amount and cost of reinsurance available to us is subject, in large part, to prevailing market conditions beyond our control |
Our ability to provide insurance at competitive premium rates and coverage limits on a continuing basis depends in large part upon our ability to secure adequate reinsurance in amounts and at rates that are commercially reasonable |
Furthermore, we are subject to credit risk with respect to our reinsurers because reinsurance does not relieve us of liability to our insureds for the risks ceded to 10 _________________________________________________________________ reinsurers |
A significant reinsurer’s inability or refusal to reimburse us under the terms of our reinsurance agreements would result in a charge to income that could materially and adversely affect our results of operations and financial condition for the period in which the charge is incurred |
We cannot assure you that we will continue to be able to obtain affordable reinsurance from creditworthy reinsurers |
The insurance industry is subject to regulatory oversight that may impact the manner in which we operate our business |
Our insurance business is subject to extensive regulation by the applicable state agencies in the jurisdictions in which we operate, and especially by the Office of Financial and Insurance Services for the State of Michigan, or OFIS, as our insurance companies are domiciled in that state |
These state agencies have broad regulatory powers designed to protect policyholders, not shareholders or other investors |
These powers include, but are not limited to, the ability to: • place limitations on the types and amounts of our investments, • review and approve or deny premium rate increases, • set standards of solvency to be met and maintained, • review reserve levels, • review change in control transactions, • limit the ability to pay dividends, • prescribe the form and content of, and to examine, our statutory-basis financial statements, and • place limitations on our ability to transact business with and between our affiliated insurance companies |
Failure to comply with these regulations could result in consequences resulting from a regulatory examination to a regulatory takeover |
If we fail to comply with insurance industry regulations, or if those regulations become more burdensome to us, we may not be able to operate profitably or may be more limited in the amount of dividends our insurance subsidiaries can make to APCapital |
Our geographic concentration in certain Midwestern states and New Mexico ties our performance to the business, economic, regulatory and legislative conditions in those states |
Approximately 93dtta4prca of our total medical professional liability direct premiums written in 2005 was written in the states of Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky and New Mexico |
Because of this concentration, unfavorable business, economic or regulatory conditions in these states could adversely impact the amount of premiums we are able to write, the costs associated with loss settlement and other expenses |
An interruption or change in current marketing and agency relationships could reduce the amount of premium we are able to write |
We currently carry the endorsement of the Michigan State Medical Society and other such organizations, which we believe provides us with a competitive advantage |
If the endorsement of these organizations were to lapse, we could see a reduction in our premium volumes in markets where such organizations carry influence |
In addition, approximately 68prca of our medical professional liability direct premiums written are produced by 10 agencies |
One agency in particular, the SCW Agency Group, Inc, produced approximately 35prca of our medical professional direct premiums written during 2005 |
An interruption or change in the relationship with any of these agencies could adversely and materially impact the amount of premiums we are able to write |
11 _________________________________________________________________ A downgrade in the financial strength rating of our insurance subsidiaries could reduce the amount of business we are able to write |
Rating agencies, such as AM Best Company, rate insurance companies based on financial strength as an indication of a company’s ability to meet policyholder obligations |
Our primary insurance subsidiary, American Physicians, has an AM Best rating of B+ (Very Good) |
An insurance company’s rating, and in particular its AM Best rating, can be a potential source of competitive advantage or disadvantage in the marketplace |
Accordingly, a downgrade in our AM Best rating could adversely affect our position in the marketplace and could result in a reduction in the amount of business we are able to write |
Changes in interest rates could adversely impact our results of operation, cash flows and financial condition |
A significant portion of our assets are invested in interest bearing fixed-income securities |
In recent years, we have earned our investment income primarily from interest income on these investments |
A decrease in prevailing interest rates could reduce the return on our investment portfolio, if we must reinvest the proceeds of securities that mature at rates below those of the securities that mature |
The reduced investment income could also reduce our cash flows |
Conversely, an increase in interest rates would reduce the carrying value of our available-for-sale fixed-income securities as the market value of these securities is typically inversely related to interest rates, which could result in a charge to income if determined to be other than temporary |
An increase in short-term interest rates would also increase the interest payments associated with our long-term debt as those obligations pay a variable rate of interest that is in part based on the three-month London Inter-Bank Offered Rate |
Any of these consequences may have a material adverse effect on our revenues, cash flows and assets, including the amount of net unrealized appreciation on investments shown on our balance sheet date |
Our status as an insurance holding company with no direct operations could adversely affect our ability to meet our debt obligations and fund future share repurchases |
As such, it has no ongoing operations and its primary assets are the stock of its insurance subsidiaries |
The availability of cash needed by APCapital to meet its obligations on its outstanding debt, repurchase outstanding shares of its common stock and pay its operating expenses is largely dependent upon dividends that it receives from its insurance subsidiaries |
The payment of dividends by our insurance subsidiaries is regulated by state insurance laws, which restrict the amount of dividends that can be made without prior approval by the State of Michigan Insurance Commissioner |
Applicable law and various provisions in our articles and bylaws will prevent and discourage unsolicited attempts to acquire APCapital that you may believe are in your best interests or that might result in a substantial profit to you |
APCapital is subject to provisions of Michigan corporate and insurance laws that have the effect of impeding a change of control by requiring prior approval of a change of control transaction by the OFIS and the board of directors |
In addition, APCapital’s articles of incorporation and bylaws include provisions which: (1) allow for the issuance of “blank check” preferred stock without further shareholder approval; (2) set high vote requirements for certain amendments to the articles of incorporation and bylaws; (3) establish a staggered board; (4) limit the ability of shareholders to call special meetings; and (5) require unanimity for shareholder action taken without a meeting |
These provisions may discourage a takeover attempt that you consider to be in your best interests or in which you would receive a substantial premium over the then-current market price |
In addition, approval by the OFIS of a change of control transaction may be withheld even if the transaction would be in the shareholders’ best interest if it determines that the transaction would be detrimental to policyholders |
As a result you may not have an opportunity to participate in such a transaction |