ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP ITEM 1A RISK FACTORS Risks Inherent in an Investment in us A substantial or extended decline in coal prices could negatively impact our results of operations |
The prices we receive for our production depends upon factors beyond our control, including: • the supply of and demand for domestic and foreign coal; • weather conditions; • the proximity to, and capacity of, transportation facilities; 16 ______________________________________________________________________ [43]Table of Contents • worldwide economic conditions; • domestic and foreign governmental regulations and taxes; • the price and availability of alternative fuels; and • the effect of worldwide energy conservation measures |
A substantial or extended decline in coal prices could materially and adversely affect us by decreasing our revenues to the extent we are not otherwise protected pursuant to the specific terms of our coal supply agreements |
A material amount of our net income and cash flow is dependent on our continued ability to realize direct or indirect benefits from federal income tax credits such as non-conventional source fuel tax credits |
If the benefit to us from any of these tax credits is materially reduced, it could negatively impact our results of operations and reduce our cash available for distributions |
The non-conventional source fuel tax credit is scheduled to expire on December 31, 2007 |
In 2005, we derived a material amount of our net income under long-term agreements with SSO These agreements are dependent on the ability of the synfuel facility’s owner to use certain qualifying federal income tax credits available to the facility and are subject to early cancellation in certain circumstances, including in the event that these synfuel tax credits become unavailable to the owner |
In 2005, the benefit of this synfuel tax credit was approximately dlra24dtta1 million |
If, because of budgetary shortfalls or any other reason, the federal government was to significantly reduce or eliminate these credits, it could negatively impact our results of operations and reduce our cash available for distributions |
Non-conventional source fuel tax credits are subject to a pro-rata phase-out or reduction if the annual average wellhead price per barrel for all domestic crude oil (the reference price) as determined by the Secretary of the Treasury exceeds certain levels |
The reference price is not subject to regulation by the United States Government |
The reference price for a calendar year is typically published in April of the following year |
For qualified fuel sold during the 2004 calendar year, the reference price was dlra36dtta75 |
The pro-rata reduction of non-conventional source fuel tax credits for 2004 would have begun if the reference price was approximately dlra51dtta00 per barrel, with a complete phase-out or reduction of non-conventional synfuel tax credits if the reference price reached approximately dlra64dtta00 per barrel |
We could experience a reduction of revenues associated with non-conventional source fuel facilities in the future if non-conventional source fuel tax credits become unavailable to the owners of the non-conventional source fuel facilities we service as a result of the rise in the wellhead price per barrel of crude oil above specified levels |
At the present time, we have not been advised of any reductions in coal feedstock supply requirements or related services provided to any of our non-conventional source fuel facility customers |
The non-conventional synfuel tax credit is scheduled to expire on December 31, 2007 |
A loss of the benefit from state tax credits may adversely affect our ability to pay our quarterly distribution Several states in which we operate or our utility customers reside have established a statutory framework for tax credits against income, franchise, or severance taxes, which have benefited, directly or indirectly, coal operators or customers purchasing coal mine production from within the applicable state |
The state statutes authorizing these tax credits are scheduled to expire in accordance with their term provisions |
Furthermore, these state statutes or our ability to benefit, directly or indirectly, from them may be subject to challenge by third parties |
One of the states in which we operate has established a statutory framework for tax credits against income or franchise taxes, that have benefited, directly or indirectly, coal operators or customers purchasing coal produced from mines within that state |
In 2005, the indirect benefit of this state tax credit to us was approximately dlra8dtta3 million |
Although this credit is not set to expire by its terms in the near future, we are aware that legislation may be proposed that would eliminate this credit as a potential measure to reduce that state’s budget deficit |
If these state statutes expire or any challenges are successful, we would lose the benefits of these credits |
Therefore, if our operations do not produce increased cash flow sufficient to replace any lost benefits, we may not be able to pay the current quarterly distribution on its outstanding common units |
Competition within the coal industry may adversely affect our ability to sell coal, and excess production capacity in the industry could put downward pressure on coal prices |
We compete with other large coal producers and hundreds of small coal producers in various regions of the United States for domestic sales |
The industry has undergone significant consolidation over the last decade |
This consolidation 17 ______________________________________________________________________ [44]Table of Contents has led to several competitors having significantly larger financial and operating resources than we have |
In addition, we compete to some extent with western surface coal mining operations that have a much lower per ton cost of production and produce low-sulfur coal |
Over the last 20 years, growth in production from western coal mines has substantially exceeded growth in production from the east |
Declining prices would reduce our revenues and would adversely affect our ability to make distributions to our unitholders |
Any change in consumption patterns by utilities away from the use of coal could affect our ability to sell the coal we produce |
Some power plants are fueled by natural gas because of the cheaper construction costs compared to coal-fired plants and because natural gas is a cleaner burning fuel |
The domestic electric utility industry accounts for approximately 90prca of domestic coal consumption |
The amount of coal consumed by the domestic electric utility industry is affected primarily by the overall demand for electricity, the price and availability of competing fuels for power plants such as nuclear, natural gas and fuel oil as well as hydroelectric power, and environmental and other governmental regulations |
From time to time conditions in the coal industry may make it more difficult for us to extend existing or enter into new long-term coal supply agreements |
This could affect the stability and profitability of our operations |
A substantial decrease in the amount of coal sold by us pursuant to long-term contracts would reduce the certainty of the price and amounts of coal sold and subject our revenue stream to increased volatility |
If that were to happen, changes in spot market coal prices below the long term contract price would have a greater impact on our results, and any decreases in the spot market price for coal could adversely affect our profitability and cash flow |
In 2005, we sold approximately 86dtta0prca of our sales tonnage under contracts having a term greater than one year |
Long-term sales contracts have historically provided a relatively secure market for the amount of production committed under the terms of the contracts |
From time to time industry conditions, however, may make it more difficult for us to enter into long-term contracts with our electric utility customers in the future |
In the future, if supply exceeds demand in the coal industry, electric utilities may become less willing to lock in price or quantity commitments for an extended period of time |
Accordingly, we may not be able to continue to obtain long-term sales contracts with reliable customers as existing contracts expire |
Some of our long-term coal supply agreements contain provisions allowing for the renegotiation of prices and, in some instances, the termination of the contract or the suspension of purchases by customers |
Some of our long-term contracts contain provisions which allow for the purchase price to be renegotiated at periodic intervals |
These price reopener provisions may automatically set a new price based on the prevailing market price or, in some instances, require the parties to the contract to agree on a new price |
Any adjustment or renegotiation leading to a significantly lower contract price could adversely affect our operating profit margins |
Accordingly, long-term contracts may provide only limited protection during adverse market conditions |
In some circumstances, failure of the parties to agree on a price under a reopener can also lead to early termination of a contract |
Several of our long-term contracts also contain provisions that allow the customer to suspend or terminate performance under the contract upon the occurrence or continuation of certain specified events |
These events are called “force majeure” events |
Some of these events that are specific to the coal industry include: • our inability to deliver the quantities or qualities of coal specified; • changes in the Clean Air Act rendering use of our coal inconsistent with the customer’s pollution control strategies; and • the occurrence of events beyond the reasonable control of the affected party, including labor disputes, mechanical malfunctions and changes in government regulations |
18 ______________________________________________________________________ [45]Table of Contents In addition, certain contracts are terminable as a result of events that are beyond our control |
For example, we have entered into agreements with several coal synfuel facilities to provide coal feedstock and other services |
Each of these agreements provides for early cancellation in the event federal synfuel tax credits become unavailable or upon the termination of associated coal synfuel sales contracts between the facility and our customers |
In the event of early termination of any of our long-term contracts, if we are unable to enter into new contracts on similar terms, our business, financial condition and results of operations could be adversely affected |
Extensive environmental laws and regulations affect coal consumers, which have corresponding effects on the demand for our coal as a fuel source |
Federal, state and local laws and regulations extensively regulate the amount of sulfur dioxide, particulate matter, nitrogen oxides, mercury and other compounds emitted into the air from electric power plants, which are the ultimate consumers of our coal |
These laws and regulations can require significant emission control expenditures for many coal-fired power plants, and various new and proposed laws and regulations may require further emission reductions and associated emission control expenditures |
A substantial portion of our coal has a high sulfur content, which may result in increased sulfur dioxide emissions when combusted |
Accordingly, these laws and regulations may affect demand and prices for our low- and high-sulfur coal |
There is also continuing pressure on state and federal regulators to impose limits on carbon dioxide emissions from electric power plants, particularly coal-fired power plants |
As a result of these current and proposed laws, regulations and trends, electricity generators may elect to switch to other fuels that generate less of these emissions, possibly further reducing demand for our coal |
” We depend on a few customers for a significant portion of our revenues, and the loss of one or more significant customers could affect our ability to maintain the sales volume and price of the coal we produce |
During 2005, we derived approximately 36dtta4prca of our total revenues from three customers, which individually accounted for 10prca or more of our 2005 total revenues |
If we were to lose any of these customers without finding replacement customers willing to purchase an equivalent amount of coal on similar terms, or if these customers were to change the amounts of coal purchased or the terms, including pricing terms, on which they buy coal from us, it could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations |
Litigation relating to disputes with our customers may result in substantial costs, liabilities and loss of revenues |
From time to time we have disputes with our customers over the provisions of long-term coal supply contracts relating to, among other things, coal pricing, quality, quantity and the existence of specified conditions beyond our control that suspend performance obligations under the particular contract |
Our profitability may decline due to unanticipated mine operating conditions and other factors that are not within our control |
Our mining operations are influenced by changing conditions that can affect production levels and costs at particular mines for varying lengths of time and as a result can diminish our profitability |
These conditions include, among others: • weather conditions; • equipment availability, replacement or repair; • prices for fuel, steel, explosives and other supplies; • Fires; • variations in thickness of the layer, or seam, of coal; • amounts of overburden, partings, rock and other natural materials; • accidental mine water discharges and other geological conditions; 19 ______________________________________________________________________ [46]Table of Contents • shortage of skilled labor; or • fluctuations in transportation costs and the availability or reliability of transportation |
These conditions have had, and can be expected in the future to have, a significant impact on our operating results |
For example, during the past two years, three loss incidents have occurred at our mine complexes |
For details on these incidents and their negative effect on our results of operations, please read “Item 7 |
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations—Pattiki Vertical Belt Incident,” “—MC Mining Fire Incident” and “—Dotiki Fire Incident |
” Prolonged disruption of production at any of our mines would result in a decrease in our revenues and profitability, which could be material |
Decreases in our profitability as a result of the factors described above could materially adversely impact our quarterly or annual results |
These risks may not be covered by our insurance policies |
Coal mining is subject to inherent risks that are beyond our control, and these risks may not be fully covered under our insurance policies |
Our mines are subject to conditions or events beyond our control that could disrupt operations and affect the cost of mining at particular mines for varying lengths of time |
These risks include: • fires and explosions from methane; • natural disasters, such as heavy rains and flooding; • mining and processing equipment failures and unexpected maintenance problems; • mine flooding due to the failure of subsurface water seals or water removal equipment; • changes or variations in geologic conditions, such as the thickness of the coal deposits and the amount of rock and soil overlying the coal deposits; • inability to acquire mining rights or permits; • employee injuries or fatalities; and • labor-related interruptions |
During the past two years, three loss incidents have occurred at our mining complexes |
On June 14, 2005, our Pattiki mining complex was temporarily idled for a period of 36 calendar days by the failure of the vertical conveyor belt system used in conveying raw coal out of the mine |
” On December 26, 2004, our Excel Nodtta 3 mine was temporarily idled for a period of 57 calendar days following the occurrence of a mine fire |
Production continues to be adversely impacted by inefficiencies attributable to or associated with this mine fire |
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Conditions and Results of Operations—MC Mining Fire Incident |
” On February 11, 2004, our Dotiki mining complex was temporarily idled for a period of 27 calendar days following the occurrence of a mine fire that originated with a diesel supply tractor |
Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Financial Conditions and Results of Operations—Dotiki Fire Incident |
” For details on how these incidents adversely affected our financial condition and results of operations, please read “Item 7 |
” Loss incidents such as these are likely to increase the cost of mining and delay or halt production at particular mines for varying lengths of time |
We do carry commercial (including business interruption and extra expense) property insurance policies; however, these risks may not be fully covered by these insurance policies |
A shortage of skilled labor may make it difficult for us to maintain labor productivity and competitive costs and could adversely affect our profitability |
Efficient coal mining using modern techniques and equipment requires skilled laborers, preferably with at least one year of experience and proficiency in multiple mining tasks |
In recent years, a shortage of trained coal miners has caused 20 ______________________________________________________________________ [47]Table of Contents us to operate certain mining units without full staff, which decreases our productivity and increases our costs |
This shortage of trained coal miners is the result of a significant percentage of experienced coal miners reaching the age for retirement, combined with the difficulty of attracting new workers to the coal industry |
Thus, this shortage of skilled labor could continue over an extended period |
If the shortage of experienced labor continues or worsens, it could have an adverse impact on our labor productivity and costs and our ability to expand production in the event there is an increase in the demand for our coal, which could adversely affect our profitability |
None of our employees are represented under collective bargaining agreements |
If some or all of our currently union-free operations were to become unionized, it could adversely affect our productivity and increase the risk of work stoppages at our mining complexes |
In addition, even if we remain union-free, our operations may still be adversely affected by work stoppages at unionized companies, particularly if union workers were to orchestrate boycotts against our operations |
We may be unable to obtain and renew permits necessary for our operations, which could reduce our production, cash flow and profitability |
Mining companies must obtain numerous permits that impose strict conditions and obligations relating to various environmental and safety matters in connection with coal mining |
The permitting rules are complex and can change over time |
The public has the right to comment on permit applications and otherwise participate in the permitting process, including through court intervention |
Accordingly, permits required by us to conduct our operations may not be issued, maintained or renewed, or may not be issued or renewed in a timely fashion, or may involve requirements that restrict our ability to economically conduct our mining operations |
Limitations on our ability to conduct our mining operations due to the inability to obtain or renew necessary permits could reduce our production, cash flow and profitability |
Please read “Regulations and Laws—Mining Permits and Approvals |
” Recent federal district court decisions in West Virginia, and related litigation filed in federal district court in Kentucky, have created uncertainty regarding the future ability to obtain certain general permits authorizing the construction of valley fills for the disposal of overburden from mining operations |
A July 2004 decision by the Southern District of West Virginia in Ohio Valley Environmental Coalition v |
Bulen enjoined the Huntington District of the US Army Corps of Engineers from issuing further permits pursuant to Nationwide Permit 21, which is a general permit issued by the US Army Corps of Engineers to streamline the process for obtaining permits under Section 404 of the Clean Water Act |
The Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals issued a decision on November 23, 2005, vacating the district court decision in Bulen and remanding the case to the lower court for further argument |
A similar lawsuit has been filed in federal district court in Kentucky that seeks to enjoin the issuance of permits pursuant to Nationwide Permit 21 by the Louisville District of the US Army Corps of Engineers |
We do not operate any mines located within the Southern District of West Virginia, and currently only utilize Nationwide Permit 21 at one location in Indiana |
In the event current or future litigation contesting the use of Nationwide Permit 21 is successful, we may be required to apply for individual discharge permits pursuant to Section 404 of the Clean Water Act in areas where it would have otherwise utilized Nationwide Permit 21 |
Such a change could result in delays in obtaining required mining permits to conduct operations, which could in turn result in reduced production, cash flow and profitability |
Fluctuations in transportation costs and the availability or reliability of transportation could reduce revenues by causing us to reduce our production or by impairing our ability to supply coal to our customers |
Transportation costs represent a significant portion of the total cost of coal for our customers and, as a result, the cost of transportation is a critical factor in a customer’s purchasing decision |
Increases in transportation costs could make coal a less competitive source of energy or could make our coal production less competitive than coal produced from other sources |
On the other hand, significant decreases in transportation costs could result in increased competition from coal producers in other parts of the country |
For instance, difficulty in coordinating the many eastern coal loading facilities, the large number of small shipments, the steeper average grades of the terrain and a more unionized workforce are all issues that combine to make coal shipments originating in the eastern United States inherently more expensive on a per-mile basis than coal shipments originating in the western United States |
Historically, high coal transportation rates from the western coal producing areas into certain eastern markets limited the use of western coal in those markets |
Lower or higher rail rates from the western coal producing areas to markets served by eastern US coal producers have created 21 ______________________________________________________________________ [48]Table of Contents major competitive challenges, as well as opportunities for eastern coal producers |
In the event of lower transportation costs, the increased competition could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition and results of operations |
Some of our mines depend on a single transportation carrier or a single mode of transportation |
Disruption of any of these transportation services due to weather-related problems, flooding, drought, accidents, mechanical difficulties, strikes, lockouts, bottlenecks, and other events could temporarily impair our ability to supply coal to our customers |
Our transportation providers may face difficulties in the future that may impair our ability to supply coal to our customers, resulting in decreased revenues |
If there are disruptions of the transportation services provided by our primary rail or barge carriers that transport our coal and we are unable to find alternative transportation providers to ship our coal, our business could be adversely affected |
The states of Kentucky and West Virginia have recently increased enforcement of weight limits on coal trucks on their public roads |
It is possible that other states in which our coal is transported by truck will modify their laws to limit truck weight limits |
Such legislation could result in shipment delays and increased costs |
An increase in transportation costs could have an adverse effect on our ability to increase or to maintain production and could adversely affect revenues |
Expansions of existing mines that we have completed since our formation, as well as mine expansions that we may undertake in the future, involve a number of risks, any of which could cause us not to realize the anticipated benefits |
Since our formation and the acquisition of our predecessor in August 1999, we have expanded our operations by adding and developing mines and coal reserves in existing, adjacent and neighboring properties |
We continually seek to expand our operations and coal reserves |
If we are unable to successfully integrate the companies, businesses or properties we are able to acquire through such expansion, our profitability may decline and we could experience a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition, or results of operations |
Expansion transactions involve various inherent risks, including: • uncertainties in assessing the value, strengths, and potential profitability of, and identifying the extent of all weaknesses, risks, contingent and other liabilities (including environmental or mine safety liabilities) of, expansion opportunities; • the ability to achieve identified operating and financial synergies anticipated to result from an expansion; • problems that could arise from the integration of the new operations; and • unanticipated changes in business, industry or general economic conditions that affect the assumptions underlying our rationale for pursuing the expansion opportunity |
Any one or more of these factors could cause us not to realize the benefits anticipated to result from an expansion |
Any expansion opportunities we pursue could materially affect our liquidity and capital resources and may require us to incur indebtedness, seek equity capital or both |
In addition, future expansions could result in us assuming more long-term liabilities relative to the value of the acquired assets than we have assumed in our previous expansions |
We may not be able to successfully grow through future acquisitions, and we may not be able to effectively integrate the various businesses or properties we acquire |
Historically, a portion of our growth and operating results have been from acquisitions |
Our future growth could be limited if we are unable to continue to make acquisitions, or if we are unable to successfully integrate the companies, businesses or properties we acquire |
We may not be successful in consummating any acquisitions and the consequences of these acquisitions is unknown |
Moreover, any acquisition could be dilutive to earnings and distributions to unitholders and any additional debt incurred to finance an acquisition could affect our ability to make distributions to unitholders |
Our ability to make acquisitions in the future could be limited by restrictions under our existing or future debt agreements, competition from other coal companies for attractive properties or the lack of suitable acquisition candidates |
22 ______________________________________________________________________ [49]Table of Contents The unavailability of an adequate supply of coal reserves that can be mined at competitive costs could cause our profitability to decline |
Our profitability depends substantially on our ability to mine coal reserves that have the geological characteristics that enable them to be mined at competitive costs and to meet the quality needed by our customers |
Because our reserves decline as we mine coal, our future success and growth depend, in part, upon our ability to acquire additional coal reserves that are economically recoverable |
Replacement reserves may not be available when required or, if available, may not be capable of being mined at costs comparable to those characteristic of the depleting mines |
We may not be able to accurately assess the geological characteristics of any reserves that we acquire, which may adversely affect our profitability and financial condition |
Exhaustion of reserves at particular mines also may have an adverse effect on our operating results that is disproportionate to the percentage of overall production represented by such mines |
Our ability to obtain other reserves in the future could be limited by restrictions under our existing or future debt agreements, competition from other coal companies for attractive properties, the lack of suitable acquisition candidates or the inability to acquire coal properties on commercially reasonable terms |
Our business depends, in part, upon our ability to find, develop or acquire additional coal reserves that we can recover economically |
Our existing reserves will decline as they are depleted |
Our planned development projects and acquisition activities may not increase our reserves significantly and we may not have continued success expanding existing and developing additional mines |
We believe that there are substantial reserves on certain adjacent or neighboring properties that are unleased and otherwise available |
However, we may not be able to negotiate leases with the landowners on acceptable terms |
An inability to expand our operations into adjacent or neighboring reserves under this strategy could have a material adverse effect on our business, financial condition or results of operations |
The estimates of our coal reserves may prove inaccurate, and you should not place undue reliance on these estimates |
The estimates of our coal reserves may vary substantially from actual amounts of coal we are able to economically recover |
The reserve data set |